PortugalversusSpain

21 Aug 2026 · T20

Kerava National Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Portugal won by 57 runs

Portugal20.0 overs160/6 Spain17.1 overs103/10 Kerava National Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

50%Portugal50%Spain

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Portugal rate stronger than Spain (1,716 vs 1,638 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Spain won 3 and Portugal won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Portugal started on 47%; Portugal batted first.

Portugal’s chance of winning (%) · Spain is the rest

Portugal's chances ranged from 47% to 100% during the match (Spain: 0% to 53%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.1: SC de Oliveira to Mohammad Ihsan, Mohammad Ihsan out. Portugal up from 65% to 77%.
2nd inns 4.3: SC de Oliveira to Mohammad Kamran, Mohammad Kamran out. Portugal up from 74% to 85%.
2nd inns 10.3: Sirajullah Khadim to Yasir Ali, Yasir Ali out. Portugal up from 74% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Portugal160/6 Spain103/10

Innings 2

Spain

103/1017.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Spain batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mohammad Ihsancaught · Cameron Shekleton · Sebastian de Oliveira 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Cameron Shekleton · b Sebastian de Oliveira	0	1	0	0	0.00
GS Bajwacaught · Craig Cachopa · J Martins 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Craig Cachopa · b J Martins	6	3	0	1	200.00
Mohammad Kamrancaught · Craig Cachopa · Sebastian de Oliveira 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Craig Cachopa · b Sebastian de Oliveira	19	15	2	1	126.67
Yasir Alibowled · Sirajullah Khadim 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Sirajullah Khadim	27	29	2	1	93.10
D Doyle-Callecaught · J Martins · Edward Fleming 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · J Martins · b Edward Fleming	29	28	1	0	103.57

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
Sebastian de Oliveira0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	2	4.67
J Martins0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.1	20	2	6.32
R Hashu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	34	0	11.33
Sirajullah Khadim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	2	4.75
Edward Fleming0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	3	3.25

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	12	13/2
3	15	28/2
4	2	30/2
5	6	36/3
6	4	40/3
7	5	45/3
8	11	56/3
9	10	66/3
10	4	70/3
11	4	74/4
12	8	82/4
13	3	85/5
14	6	91/5
15	4	95/6
16	1	96/8
17	7	103/9
18	0	103/10

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