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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier · 2024 · Men
8 Jul 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Norway more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Norway started on 63%; Norway batted first.
Norway's chances ranged from 63% to 100% during the match (Sweden: 0% to 37%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imal Zuwakcaught · Mandeep Singh (2) · Vinay Ravi 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mandeep Singh (2) · b Vinay Ravi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 175.00 |
| Choudry Share Alibowled · Wahidullah Sahak 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Wahidullah Sahak | 17 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 130.77 |
| Zabiullah Zahidcaught · Khizer Ahmed · Vinay Ravi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Khizer Ahmed · b Vinay Ravi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| A Mundracaught · Qamar Mushtaque · Wahidullah Sahak 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Qamar Mushtaque · b Wahidullah Sahak | 41 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 124.24 |
| Khalid Zahidrun out · Raza Iqbal, Wahidullah Sahak · Wahidullah Sahak 0 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Raza Iqbal, Wahidullah Sahak | 15 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 250.00 |
| Saeed Ahmed (2)caught · Vinay Ravi · Wahidullah Sahak 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vinay Ravi · b Wahidullah Sahak | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| SKR Mallidibowled · AJ Parmar 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b AJ Parmar | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Samiullah Rahmanicaught · Qamar Mushtaque · AJ Parmar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Qamar Mushtaque · b AJ Parmar | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Hamid Mahmoodnot out 0 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 22* | 17 | 0 | 2 | 129.41 |
|---|
| Abdul Naser Baluchcaught · Vinay Ravi · Raza Iqbal 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Vinay Ravi · b Raza Iqbal | 15 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 214.29 |
|---|
| Zaker Taqawistumped · Khizer Ahmed · AJ Parmar 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Khizer Ahmed · b AJ Parmar | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinay Ravi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmadullah Shinwari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 11.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Wahidullah Sahak0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 4.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Raza Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Qamar Mushtaque0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| AJ Parmar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 3 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (Imal Zuwak, 0.4) · 2-7 (Zabiullah Zahid, 0.5) · 3-55 (Choudry Share Ali, 5.5) · 4-72 (Khalid Zahid, 7.3) · 5-83 (Saeed Ahmed (2), 9.2) · 6-86 (SKR Mallidi, 10.2) · 7-92 (A Mundra, 11.4) · 8-92 (Samiullah Rahmani, 12.1) · 9-109 (Abdul Naser Baluch, 13.5) · 10-132 (Zaker Taqawi, 17.0)
Recorded target: 186 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/2 |
| 2 | 10 | 17/2 |
| 3 | 8 | 25/2 |
| 4 | 13 | 38/2 |
| 5 | 14 | 52/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 56/3 |
| 7 | 14 | 70/3 |
| 8 | 7 | 77/4 |
| 9 | 6 | 83/4 |
| 10 | 2 | 85/5 |
| 11 | 2 | 87/6 |
| 12 | 5 | 92/7 |
| 13 | 10 | 102/8 |
| 14 | 7 | 109/9 |
| 15 | 3 | 112/9 |
| 16 | 9 | 121/9 |
| 17 | 11 | 132/10 |
Khizer Ahmed: Khizer22 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
