NorwayversusSweden

8 Jul 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Norway won by 53 runs

Norway20.0 overs185/8 Sweden17.0 overs132/10 Bayer Uerdingen Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Norway more likely to win

66%Norway34%Sweden

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Norway rate stronger than Sweden (1,489 vs 1,417 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Norway won 1 and Sweden won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Norway started on 63%; Norway batted first.

Norway’s chance of winning (%) · Sweden is the rest

Norway's chances ranged from 63% to 100% during the match (Sweden: 0% to 37%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.5: Wahidullah Sahak to Choudry Share Ali, Choudry Share Ali out. Norway up from 75% to 84%.
2nd inns 7.3: Wahidullah Sahak to A Mundra, Khalid Zahid out. Norway up from 77% to 88%.
2nd inns 9.2: Wahidullah Sahak to Saeed Ahmed, Saeed Ahmed out. Norway up from 85% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Norway185/8 Sweden132/10

Innings 1

Norway

185/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Norway batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Raza Iqbalbowled · Khalid Zahid 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Khalid Zahid	15	14	1	1	107.14
Khizer Ahmedcaught · Imal Zuwak · Hamid Mahmood 4 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Imal Zuwak · b Hamid Mahmood	40	23	4	2	173.91
Walid Ghaurirun out · Choudry Share Ali, A Mundra · Abdul Naser Baluch 5 fours · 3 sixes	run out · Choudry Share Ali, A Mundra	59	36	5	3	163.89
Mandeep Singh (2)caught · A Mundra · Hamid Mahmood 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Mundra · b Hamid Mahmood	8	7	1	0	114.29
Ali Saleemrun out · Khalid Zahid · Khalid Zahid 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Khalid Zahid0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	2	6.75	5	0
Abdul Naser Baluch0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	0	8.00	2	0
Zaker Taqawi0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	51	0	12.75	0	1
Hamid Mahmood0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	1	0
Saeed Ahmed (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	29	1	9.67	0	0
SKR Mallidi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	16	0	16.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	10	17/0
3	8	25/1
4	7	32/1
5	26	58/1
6	9	67/1
7	6	73/1
8	5	78/2
9	8	86/2
10	10	96/3
11	8	104/4
12	5	109/4
13	10	119/4
14	11	130/4
15	16	146/4
16	4	150/5
17	5	155/5
18	11	166/5
19	15	181/6
20	4	185/8

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