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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
1 Jun 2024 · T20
Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photographRecorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 19%; Canada batted first.
Canada's chances ranged from 0% to 84% during the match (United States of America: 16% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Taylorlbw · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kaleem Sana | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Monank Patelcaught · Shreyas Movva · Dillon Heyliger 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Dillon Heyliger | 16 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Andries Gouscaught · Aaron Johnson · Nikhil Dutta 7 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Aaron Johnson · b Nikhil Dutta | 65 | 46 | 7 | 3 | 141.30 |
| Aaron Jonesnot out 4 fours · 10 sixes | not out | 94* | 40 | 4 | 10 | 235.00 |
| Corey Andersonnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 14 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 8.50 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Gordon0 maidens · 3 wides · 2 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 14.67 | 3 | 2 |
| Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 6.33 | 3 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 10.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Nikhil Dutta0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.4 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 15.38 | 2 | 1 |
| Pargat Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Steven Taylor, 0.2) · 2-42 (Monank Patel, 6.3) · 3-173 (Andries Gous, 15.4)
Recorded target: 195 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 14 | 24/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 29/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 34/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 41/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 45/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 48/2 |
| 9 | 19 | 67/2 |
| 10 | 14 | 81/2 |
| 11 | 10 | 91/2 |
| 12 | 15 | 106/2 |
| 13 | 20 | 126/2 |
| 14 | 33 | 159/2 |
| 15 | 9 | 168/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 174/3 |
| 17 | 7 | 181/3 |
| 18 | 16 | 197/3 |
Ali Khan: U.S. Embassy Port of Spain · Public domain
Nikhil Dutta: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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