BangladeshversusWest Indies

31 Oct 2025 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 5 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs151/10 West Indies16.5 overs152/5 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

53%Bangladesh47%West Indies

Why

Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, West Indies won 6 and Bangladesh won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than West Indies (1,528 vs 1,517 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 53%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 61% during the match (West Indies: 39% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.5: Mahedi Hasan to A Athanaze, A Athanaze out. Bangladesh up from 43% to 56%.
2nd inns 5.4: Nasum Ahmed to BA King, BA King out. Bangladesh up from 35% to 48%.
2nd inns 7.3: Rishad Hossain to AA Jangoo, AA Jangoo out. Bangladesh up from 37% to 53%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh151/10 West Indies152/5

Innings 2

West Indies

152/516.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Alick Athanazestumped · Litton Das · Mahedi Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Litton Das · b Mahedi Hasan	1	8	0	0	12.50
Amir Jangoolbw · Rishad Hossain 5 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Rishad Hossain	34	23	5	1	147.83
Brandon Kingbowled · Nasum Ahmed 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Nasum Ahmed	8	7	2	0	114.29
Roston Chasebowled · Rishad Hossain 5 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Rishad Hossain	50	29	5	1	172.41
Ackeem Augustecaught · Mahedi Hasan · Rishad Hossain 1 fours · 5 sixes	caught · Mahedi Hasan · b Rishad Hossain

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mahedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	1	4.50	0
Shariful Islam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	12	0	6.00	0
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	50	0	13.04	1
Nasum Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	29	1	9.67	0
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	43	3	10.75	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	3	5/0
3	1	6/1
4	9	15/1
5	18	33/1
6	4	37/2
7	10	47/2
8	8	55/3
9	11	66/3
10	11	77/3
11	5	82/3
12	11	93/3
13	21	114/3
14	14	128/3
15	15	143/3
16	3	146/5
17	6	152/5

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