New ZealandversusIndia

24 Oct 2026 · T20

Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 4 wickets

New Zealand20.0 overs180/5 India19.5 overs181/6 Hagley Oval, Christchurch ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

21%New Zealand79%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than New Zealand (1,775 vs 1,590 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and New Zealand won 2
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 19%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 10% to 93% during the match (India: 7% to 90%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.6: NG Smith to Tilak Varma, six by Tilak Varma. India up from 28% to 56%.
2nd inns 19.2: JA Duffy to Tilak Varma, four by Tilak Varma. India up from 51% to 75%.
2nd inns 19.5: JA Duffy to Nithish Kumar Reddy, 2 runs to Nithish Kumar Reddy. India up from 79% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand180/5 India181/6

Innings 2

India

181/619.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sanju Samsoncaught · Glenn Phillips · Jacob Duffy 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Glenn Phillips · b Jacob Duffy	14	17	1	1	82.35
Abhishek Sharmacaught · Nathan Smith · Mitchell Santner 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Nathan Smith · b Mitchell Santner	27	21	3	1	128.57
Vaibhav Suryavanshicaught · Daryl Mitchell · Nathan Smith 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Nathan Smith	4	8	0	0	50.00
Shreyas Iyerbowled · Mitchell Santner 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Mitchell Santner	7	11	0	0	63.64

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Matt Henry1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	11	0	5.50	0	0
Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	3.5	0	41	1	10.70	2	1
Lockie Ferguson0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls	3.0	0	37	0	12.33	1	2
Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	35	0	8.75	2	0
Nathan Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	34	1	11.33	0	0
Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	4	5.25	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/0
2	11	11/0
3	11	22/0
4	15	37/0
5	4	41/1
6	3	44/1
7	3	47/2
8	7	54/2
9	2	56/3
10	10	66/3
11	5	71/5
12	13	84/5
13	8	92/5
14	15	107/5
15	6	113/6
16	13	126/6
17	9	135/6
18	17	152/6
19	18	170/6
20	11	181/6

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.