MalaysiaversusNepal

20 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Nepal won by 2 wickets

Malaysia16.5 overs67/10 Nepal17.3 overs71/8 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

27%Malaysia73%Nepal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Malaysia (1,530 vs 1,325 on our results rating)
Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malaysia started on 26%; Malaysia batted first.

Malaysia’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

Malaysia's chances ranged from 1% to 32% during the match (Nepal: 68% to 99%).

Biggest swings

8.2: Puja Mahato to Mas Elysa, Mas Elysa out. Nepal up from 80% to 86%.
2nd inns 15.1: Aisya Eleesa to Samjhana Khadka, Samjhana Khadka out. Malaysia up from 3% to 10%.
2nd inns 16.4: Mas Elysa to K Joshi, four by K Joshi. Nepal up from 91% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malaysia67/10 Nepal71/8

Innings 2

Nepal

71/817.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nepal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Samjhana Khadkacaught · Nur Arianna Natsya · Aisya Eleesa 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nur Arianna Natsya · b Aisya Eleesa	32	39	2	0	82.05
Bindu Rawalcaught · Aisya Eleesa · Nur Dania Syuhada 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Aisya Eleesa · b Nur Dania Syuhada	0	2	0	0	0.00
Puja Mahatocaught · Nur Arianna Natsya · Aisya Eleesa 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nur Arianna Natsya · b Aisya Eleesa	0	5	0	0	0.00
R Poddarlbw · Elsa Hunter 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Elsa Hunter	15	22	2	0	68.18
I Barmacaught · Nur Arianna Natsya · Nur Qalysha 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Nur Dania Syuhada0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	10	1	2.50	0
Aisya Eleesa1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	14	2	3.50	0
Elsa Hunter0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	16	2	4.00	2
Nur Qalysha0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	3	5.25	2
Mas Elysa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	6	0	6.00	0
Ainna Hamizah Hashim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	0.3	0	4	0	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	3	4/2
3	5	9/2
4	1	10/2
5	3	13/2
6	10	23/2
7	6	29/2
8	9	38/2
9	3	41/3
10	2	43/4
11	3	46/5
12	9	55/6
13	4	59/6
14	1	60/7
15	1	61/7
16	0	61/8
17	6	67/8
18	4	71/8

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