MalaysiaversusNepal

20 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Nepal won by 2 wickets

Malaysia16.5 overs67/10 Nepal17.3 overs71/8 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

27%Malaysia73%Nepal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Malaysia (1,530 vs 1,325 on our results rating)
Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malaysia started on 26%; Malaysia batted first.

Malaysia’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

Malaysia's chances ranged from 1% to 32% during the match (Nepal: 68% to 99%).

Biggest swings

8.2: Puja Mahato to Mas Elysa, Mas Elysa out. Nepal up from 80% to 86%.
2nd inns 15.1: Aisya Eleesa to Samjhana Khadka, Samjhana Khadka out. Malaysia up from 3% to 10%.
2nd inns 16.4: Mas Elysa to K Joshi, four by K Joshi. Nepal up from 91% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malaysia67/10 Nepal71/8

Innings 1

Malaysia

67/1016.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malaysia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Ainna Hamizah Hashimbowled · K Kunwar 0 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b K Kunwar	7	18	0	1	38.89
Elsa Huntercaught · I Barma · Puja Mahato 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · I Barma · b Puja Mahato	10	14	2	0	71.43
Mahirah Ismailrun out · Sita Rana Magar, M Upadhayay · M Upadhayay 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Sita Rana Magar, M Upadhayay	0	2	0	0	0.00
Mas Elysacaught · Rubina Chhetri · Puja Mahato 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rubina Chhetri · b Puja Mahato	8	9	1	0	88.89
Nur Dania Syuhadalbw · Riya Sharma 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Riya Sharma

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
M Upadhayay1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	17	2	4.25	1
K Kunwar1 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	12	1	4.00	6
Riya Sharma0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	2.5	0	13	2	4.59	6
Puja Mahato0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	13	3	3.25	0
Sita Rana Magar1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	11	1	3.67	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/0
2	6	6/0
3	9	15/0
4	0	15/1
5	7	22/2
6	6	28/2
7	6	34/3
8	6	40/4
9	2	42/5
10	0	42/5
11	7	49/5
12	5	54/6
13	2	56/7
14	1	57/9
15	3	60/9
16	6	66/9
17	1	67/10

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