BhutanversusMyanmar

24 Dec 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Bhutan won by 120 runs

Bhutan20.0 overs216/8 Myanmar20.0 overs96/8 Gelephu International Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bhutan more likely to win

77%Bhutan23%Myanmar

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bhutan rate stronger than Myanmar (1,345 vs 1,241 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Bhutan won 2 and Myanmar won 0
Bhutan are playing at home in Bhutan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bhutan started on 75%; Bhutan batted first.

Bhutan’s chance of winning (%) · Myanmar is the rest

Bhutan's chances ranged from 75% to 100% during the match (Myanmar: 0% to 25%).

Biggest swings

0.3: H Lin Aung to Namgay Thinley, four by Namgay Thinley. Bhutan up from 75% to 78%.
2.1: H Lin Oo to Tenjin Rabgey, six by Tenjin Rabgey. Bhutan up from 75% to 79%.
4.4: Pyae Phyo Wai to Tenjin Rabgey, Tenjin Rabgey out. Myanmar up from 15% to 19%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bhutan216/8 Myanmar96/8

Innings 2

Myanmar

96/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Myanmar batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Pyae Phyo Waicaught · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji · Tashi Phuntsho 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji · b Tashi Phuntsho	4	7	0	0	57.14
Htet Lin Oostumped · Tshering Tashi · Tashi Dorji 2 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Tshering Tashi · b Tashi Dorji	12	16	2	0	75.00
Ko Ko Lin Thulbw · T Wangchuk 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b T Wangchuk	1	6	0	0	16.67
Htet Lin Aungcaught and bowled · Tashi Dorji 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught and bowled · b Tashi Dorji	19	20	1	2	95.00
Khin Ayecaught · Gakul Ghalley · Tashi Dorji 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Gakul Ghalley · b Tashi Dorji	1	5	0	0	20.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
T Wangchuk1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	7	2	1.75	1
Tashi Phuntsho0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	1	6.00	2
Sonam Yeshey0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	31	0	10.33	5
Tashi Dorji1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	3	3	0.75	0
Karma Dorji0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	17	1	5.67	0
Namgay Thinley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	13	1	4.33	0
Tenjin Rabgey0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	7	0	7.00	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	4	7/1
3	4	11/2
4	8	19/2
5	2	21/2
6	10	31/2
7	3	34/3
8	16	50/3
9	1	51/4
10	5	56/4
11	1	57/5
12	5	62/5
13	0	62/5
14	2	64/5
15	7	71/5
16	3	74/5
17	5	79/5
18	8	87/6
19	2	89/7
20	7	96/8

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