GermanyversusTanzania

12 Jul 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Tanzania won by 5 wickets

Germany18.4 overs140/10 Tanzania16.5 overs146/5 TCA Oval, Blantyre ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Germany more likely to win

56%Germany44%Tanzania

Why

In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Germany won 1 and Tanzania won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Germany rate stronger than Tanzania (1,493 vs 1,487 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Germany started on 51%; Germany batted first.

Germany’s chance of winning (%) · Tanzania is the rest

Germany's chances ranged from 0% to 59% during the match (Tanzania: 41% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.4: SA Jumbe to H Singh, H Singh out. Tanzania up from 63% to 81%.
4.4: LS Barkania to Musaddiq Ahmed, Musaddiq Ahmed out. Tanzania up from 66% to 79%.
6.6: LS Barkania to Fayaz Khan, Fayaz Khan out. Tanzania up from 71% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Germany140/10 Tanzania146/5

Innings 1

Germany

140/1018.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Germany batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Musadiq Ahmedcaught · Shaik Basha · LS Barkania 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Shaik Basha · b LS Barkania	25	16	4	1	156.25
Shahid Afridi (2)caught · LS Barkania · Salum Jumbe 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · LS Barkania · b Salum Jumbe	1	2	0	0	50.00
Mohammad Hassan Khanrun out · Salum Jumbe · Salum Jumbe 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Salum Jumbe	0	1	0	0	0.00
Harmanjot Singhcaught · A Augastin · Salum Jumbe 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Augastin · b Salum Jumbe	0	2	0	0	0.00
Sachin Mandystumped · A Augastin · Kassim Nassoro 1 fours · 5 sixes	stumped · A Augastin · b Kassim Nassoro	50	40	1	5	125.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
K Juma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	18	2	4.91	0
Salum Jumbe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	7	2	3.50	0
LS Barkania0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	2	5.75	0
Ally Kimote0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	18	1	9.00	0
RE Francis0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	0	7.50	2
Kassim Nassoro0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	46	2	11.50	2
Shaik Basha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	1	11/3
3	6	17/3
4	6	23/3
5	7	30/4
6	12	42/4
7	2	44/5
8	4	48/5
9	9	57/5
10	11	68/5
11	5	73/5
12	9	82/5
13	8	90/5
14	4	94/5
15	11	105/6
16	10	115/8
17	1	116/9
18	23	139/9
19	1	140/10

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