AustraliaversusSouth Africa

Australia more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than South Africa (1,761 vs 1,486 on our results rating)
• In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 5 and South Africa won 0
• Australia are playing at home in Australia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Australia started on 92%; Australia batted first.

Australia's chances ranged from 1% to 94% during the match (South Africa: 6% to 99%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 9.4: TM McGrath to T Brits, T Brits out. Australia up from 26% to 36%.
2. 2nd inns 11.6: H Graham to L Wolvaardt, 1 run to L Wolvaardt. South Africa up from 64% to 74%.
3. 2nd inns 15.6: ML Schutt to L Wolvaardt, 1 run to L Wolvaardt. South Africa up from 72% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.