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Sri Lanka tour of Pakistan · 2026/27 · Men
9 Oct 2026 · T20
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 25%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 35% during the match (Pakistan: 65% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lahiru Udaracaught · Hassan Nawaz · Naseem Shah 11 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Hassan Nawaz · b Naseem Shah | 91 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 165.45 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Mohammad Imran · Naseem Shah 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Imran · b Naseem Shah | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Kamil Misharacaught · Fakhar Zaman · Mohammad Imran 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fakhar Zaman · b Mohammad Imran | 6 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 46.15 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Fakhar Zaman · Saim Ayub 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fakhar Zaman · b Saim Ayub | 23 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 127.78 |
| Sahan Arachchigecaught · Shadab Khan · Mohammad Imran 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shadab Khan · b Mohammad Imran | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Dasun Shanakacaught · Fakhar Zaman · Shadab Khan 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Fakhar Zaman · b Shadab Khan | 18 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 120.00 |
|---|
| Dunith Wellalagebowled · Naseem Shah 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Naseem Shah | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshanacaught and bowled · Razaullah Mashwani 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Razaullah Mashwani | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Dushmantha Chameeranot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 3 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Eshan Malinganot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 7 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 18 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 16 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 3 | 9.00 | 16 | 0 |
| Mohammad Imran0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Razaullah Mashwani0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 9.67 | 1 | 1 |
 Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Shadab Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (Kusal Mendis, 0.5) · 2-18 (Kamil Mishara, 3.3) · 3-78 (Kamindu Mendis, 9.4) · 4-83 (Sahan Arachchige, 10.1) · 5-140 (Dasun Shanaka, 15.5) · 6-167 (Dunith Wellalage, 18.3) · 7-172 (Lahiru Udara, 19.0) · 8-172 (Mahesh Theekshana, 19.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 16/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 24/2 |
| 5 | 10 | 34/2 |
| 6 | 11 | 45/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 52/2 |
| 8 | 14 | 66/2 |
| 9 | 7 | 73/2 |
| 10 | 10 | 83/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 87/4 |
| 12 | 7 | 94/4 |
| 13 | 12 | 106/4 |
| 14 | 10 | 116/4 |
| 15 | 16 | 132/4 |
| 16 | 9 | 141/5 |
| 17 | 9 | 150/5 |
| 18 | 10 | 160/5 |
| 19 | 12 | 172/7 |
| 20 | 10 | 182/8 |
Shadab Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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