AustraliaversusIreland

11 Feb 2026 · T20

R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 67 runs

Australia20.0 overs182/6 Ireland16.5 overs115/9 R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

81%Australia19%Ireland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Ireland (1,683 vs 1,501 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 2 and Ireland won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 80%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · Ireland is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 75% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 25%).

Biggest swings

1.1: MR Adair to TM Head, TM Head out. Ireland up from 17% to 24%.
6.5: GH Dockrell to JP Inglis, JP Inglis out. Ireland up from 10% to 14%.
9.3: HT Tector to GJ Maxwell, GJ Maxwell out. Ireland up from 11% to 16%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia182/6 Ireland115/9

Innings 1

Australia

182/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Travis Headrun out · Ben Calitz, Mark Adair · Mark Adair 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Ben Calitz, Mark Adair	6	7	1	0	85.71
Josh Ingliscaught · Paul Stirling · George Dockrell 6 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Paul Stirling · b George Dockrell	37	17	6	1	217.65
Cameron Greencaught · George Dockrell · Mark Adair 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · George Dockrell · b Mark Adair	21	11	1	2	190.91
Matt Renshaw

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Matthew Humphreys0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	1	8.25	2
Mark Adair0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	44	2	11.00	1
Barry McCarthy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	37	0	12.33	1
Gareth Delany0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	12	0	6.00	0
George Dockrell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	1	7.75	0
Harry Tector0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	1	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	5	12/1
3	14	26/1
4	14	40/1
5	16	56/2
6	8	64/2
7	5	69/3
8	8	77/3
9	9	86/3
10	4	90/4
11	8	98/4
12	12	110/4
13	6	116/4
14	4	120/4
15	9	129/4
16	13	142/4
17	7	149/5
18	10	159/6
19	10	169/6
20	13	182/6

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