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West Indies tour of India · 2026/27 · Men
3 Oct 2026 · ODI
Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium, New Chandigarh · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 85%; India batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rohit Sharmacaught · J Andrew · Keemo Paul10 fours · 3 sixes | caught · J Andrew · b Keemo Paul | 92 | 85 | 10 | 3 | 108.24 |
 Shubman Gillcaught · Shai Hope · Jayden Seales0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Jayden Seales | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
 Virat Kohlibowled · Jayden Seales0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jayden Seales | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ruturaj Gaikwadcaught · John Campbell · Jayden Seales 1 fours · 4 sixes | caught · John Campbell · b Jayden Seales | 57 | 69 |
India's chances ranged from 0% to 92% during the match (West Indies: 8% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 82.61 |
 KL Rahulnot out10 fours · 6 sixes | not out | 129* | 87 | 10 | 6 | 148.28 |
|---|
| Naman Dhircaught · J Andrew · Gudakesh Motie 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · J Andrew · b Gudakesh Motie | 30 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 142.86 |
|---|
 Nitish Kumar Reddycaught · Shai Hope · Keemo Paul0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Keemo Paul | 9 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 56.25 |
|---|
| Anshul Kambojrun out · Alzarri Joseph · Alzarri Joseph 0 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Alzarri Joseph | 17 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 188.89 |
|---|
| Gurnoor Brarnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 6 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Seales0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 62 | 3 | 6.20 | 2 | 0 |
| Matthew Forde0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Alzarri Joseph1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 70 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Keemo Paul0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 71 | 2 | 7.89 | 1 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 67 | 1 | 6.70 | 2 | 0 |
| Vitel Lawes0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 10.80 | 1 | 0 |
1-3 (Shubman Gill, 2.3) · 2-4 (Virat Kohli, 2.4) · 3-141 (Rohit Sharma, 24.4) · 4-160 (Ruturaj Gaikwad, 28.5) · 5-225 (Naman Dhir, 36.0) · 6-250 (Nitish Kumar Reddy, 41.0) · 7-290 (Anshul Kamboj, 45.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 4/2 |
| 4 | 1 | 5/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 9/2 |
| 6 | 9 | 18/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 21/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 23/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 26/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 28/2 |
| 11 | 0 | 28/2 |
| 12 | 10 | 38/2 |
| 13 | 8 | 46/2 |
| 14 | 9 | 55/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 59/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 63/2 |
| 17 | 15 | 78/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 82/2 |
| 19 | 13 | 95/2 |
| 20 | 7 | 102/2 |
| 21 | 18 | 120/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 124/2 |
| 23 | 7 | 131/2 |
| 24 | 10 | 141/2 |
| 25 | 1 | 142/3 |
| 26 | 4 | 146/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 152/3 |
| 28 | 7 | 159/3 |
| 29 | 1 | 160/4 |
| 30 | 12 | 172/4 |
| 31 | 8 | 180/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 185/4 |
| 33 | 14 | 199/4 |
| 34 | 8 | 207/4 |
| 35 | 9 | 216/4 |
| 36 | 9 | 225/5 |
| 37 | 7 | 232/5 |
| 38 | 3 | 235/5 |
| 39 | 5 | 240/5 |
| 40 | 6 | 246/5 |
| 41 | 4 | 250/6 |
| 42 | 5 | 255/6 |
| 43 | 11 | 266/6 |
| 44 | 15 | 281/6 |
| 45 | 5 | 286/6 |
| 46 | 8 | 294/7 |
| 47 | 7 | 301/7 |
| 48 | 11 | 312/7 |
| 49 | 17 | 329/7 |
| 50 | 22 | 351/7 |
Nitish Kumar Reddy: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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