Central DistrictsversusWellington

9 Jan 2025 · T20

Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Wellington won by 8 wickets

Central Districts19.4 overs113/10 Wellington15.1 overs114/2 Basin Reserve, Wellington ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 29%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Wellington is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 0% to 34% during the match (Wellington: 66% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.2: XA Jetly to MJ Greig, MJ Greig out. Wellington up from 70% to 78%.
6.4: LM Kasperek to FDM Devonshire, FDM Devonshire out. Wellington up from 69% to 77%.
12.4: XA Jetly to GK Atkinson, GK Atkinson out. Wellington up from 66% to 73%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts113/10 Wellington114/2

Innings 1