EnglandversusNew Zealand

6 Jul 2024 · T20

The Rose Bowl, Southampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 59 runs

England20.0 overs197/3 New Zealand20.0 overs138/9 The Rose Bowl, Southampton ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

84%England16%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than New Zealand (1,737 vs 1,544 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 7 and New Zealand won 3
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 83%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

England's chances ranged from 84% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 16%).

Biggest swings

0.1: FC Jonas to DN Wyatt, four by DN Wyatt. England up from 84% to 86%.
0.4: FC Jonas to ME Bouchier, four by ME Bouchier. England up from 86% to 87%.
7.4: LMM Tahuhu to ME Bouchier, ME Bouchier out. New Zealand up from 7% to 10%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England197/3 New Zealand138/9

Innings 1

England

197/320.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Danielle Wyattcaught · Maddy Green · Lea Tahuhu 11 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Maddy Green · b Lea Tahuhu	76	51	11	1	149.02
Maia Bouchiercaught · Georgia Plimmer · Lea Tahuhu 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Georgia Plimmer · b Lea Tahuhu	32	26	5	0	123.08
Nat Sciver-Bruntcaught · Amelia Kerr · Eden Carson 9 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amelia Kerr · b Eden Carson	47	23	9	0	204.35
Freya Kempnot out 3 fours · 1 sixes	not out	26*	17	3	1	152.94

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Fran Jonas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	0	11.50	0	0
Sophie Devine0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	28	0	9.33	1	1
Jess Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	0	8.67	0	0
Lea Tahuhu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	2	8.25	1	0
Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	0	7.50	0	0
Eden Carson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	26	1	13.00	0	0
Brooke Halliday0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	0	11.50	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	10	19/0
3	6	25/0
4	7	32/0
5	10	42/0
6	10	52/0
7	6	58/0
8	9	67/1
9	7	74/1
10	8	82/1
11	16	98/1
12	10	108/1
13	15	123/1
14	11	134/1
15	9	143/1
16	10	153/2
17	12	165/2
18	9	174/3
19	12	186/3
20	11	197/3

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