Hong KongversusNamibia

13 Mar 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Namibia won by 7 wickets

Hong Kong20.0 overs80/9 Namibia13.5 overs81/3 Entebbe Cricket Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

51%Hong Kong49%Namibia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than Namibia (1,549 vs 1,517 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Namibia won 2 and Hong Kong won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hong Kong started on 47%; Hong Kong batted first.

Hong Kong’s chance of winning (%) · Namibia is the rest

Hong Kong's chances ranged from 0% to 56% during the match (Namibia: 44% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.2: W Mwatile to Shanzeen Shahzad, Shanzeen Shahzad out. Namibia up from 48% to 54%.
19.6: JA Diergaardt to Joyleen Kaur, Joyleen Kaur out. Namibia up from 73% to 80%.
2nd inns 6.5: KY Chan to M Gorases, M Gorases out. Hong Kong up from 12% to 19%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hong Kong80/9 Namibia81/3

Innings 1

Hong Kong

80/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Hong Kong batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Natasha Mileslbw · S Tuhadeleni 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b S Tuhadeleni	13	29	0	0	44.83
Shanzeen Shahzadbowled · Wilka Mwatile 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Wilka Mwatile	9	15	2	0	60.00
Mariko Hillbowled · Kayleen Green 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kayleen Green	9	20	0	0	45.00
Kary Chanlbw · Sune Wittmann 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Sune Wittmann	0	4	0	0	0.00
Y Daswanicaught · Kayleen Green · Eveleen Kejarukua 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kayleen Green · b Eveleen Kejarukua	10	16	0	0	62.50
M Bibi

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Wilka Mwatile1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	7	1	1.75	4
M Mwatile0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	9	0	9.00	1
Kayleen Green0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	1	3.50	2
Sune Wittmann0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	8	1	2.67	0
S Tuhadeleni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	20	1	6.67	0
Eveleen Kejarukua0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	16	1	5.33	1
Arrasta Diergaardt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	3	2	1.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	9	11/0
3	4	15/0
4	3	18/0
5	0	18/1
6	4	22/1
7	2	24/1
8	5	29/1
9	5	34/1
10	2	36/2
11	1	37/3
12	3	40/3
13	2	42/3
14	5	47/4
15	4	51/5
16	12	63/5
17	7	70/5
18	2	72/6
19	5	77/7
20	3	80/9

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