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Photo: Ranadipam Basu
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia tour of Bangladesh · 2026 · Men
14 Jun 2026 · ODI
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 49%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Soumya Sarkarbowled · Xavier Bartlett0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Xavier Bartlett | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Tanzid Hasancaught · Riley Meredith · Matt Renshaw 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Riley Meredith · b Matt Renshaw | 19 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 95.00 |
 Najmul Hossain Shantobowled · Matt Renshaw3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matt Renshaw | 24 | 50 | 3 | 0 | 48.00 |
 Litton Dasnot out4 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 58* | 78 | 4 | 2 | 74.36 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 84% during the match (Australia: 17% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Tawhid Hridoycaught · Alex Carey · Ben Dwarshuis8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Ben Dwarshuis | 83 | 88 | 8 | 0 | 94.32 |
|---|
 Mosaddek Hossain Saikatnot out5 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 56* | 51 | 5 | 1 | 109.80 |
|---|
| Mahedi Hasancaught · Cameron Green · Xavier Bartlett 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Xavier Bartlett | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 11 · wides: 18 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Bartlett0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 47 | 2 | 5.88 | 4 | 0 |
| Riley Meredith0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 5.86 | 3 | 0 |
| Ben Dwarshuis0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 6.88 | 8 | 0 |
 Cameron Green2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Matt Renshaw0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 44 | 2 | 4.89 | 1 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 4.80 | 2 | 0 |
 Marnus Labuschagne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Soumya Sarkar, 0.4) · 2-53 (Tanzid Hasan, 10.0) · 3-61 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 14.1) · 4-246 (Tawhid Hridoy, 45.5) · 5-261 (Mahedi Hasan, 48.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 13/1 |
| 5 | 12 | 25/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 31/1 |
| 7 | 10 | 41/1 |
| 8 | 0 | 41/1 |
| 9 | 7 | 48/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 53/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 55/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 57/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 59/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 61/2 |
| 15 | 1 | 62/3 |
| 16 | 6 | 68/3 |
| 17 | 4 | 72/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 74/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 80/3 |
| 20 | 6 | 86/3 |
| 21 | 8 | 94/3 |
| 22 | 7 | 101/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 104/3 |
| 24 | 6 | 110/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 114/3 |
| 26 | 13 | 127/3 |
| 27 | 9 | 136/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 140/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 144/3 |
| 30 | 0 | 144/3 |
| 31 | 4 | 148/3 |
| 32 | 5 | 153/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 158/3 |
| 34 | 2 | 160/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 165/3 |
| 36 | 7 | 172/3 |
| 37 | 10 | 182/3 |
| 38 | 4 | 186/3 |
| 39 | 8 | 194/3 |
| 40 | 4 | 198/3 |
| 41 | 10 | 208/3 |
| 42 | 10 | 218/3 |
| 43 | 7 | 225/3 |
| 44 | 11 | 236/3 |
| 45 | 6 | 242/3 |
| 46 | 5 | 247/4 |
| 47 | 3 | 250/4 |
| 48 | 9 | 259/4 |
| 49 | 6 | 265/5 |
| 50 | 9 | 274/5 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Oliver Peake: DustyNail · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mosaddek Hossain Saikat: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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