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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier · 2024 · Men
10 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Isle of Man more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Isle of Man started on 65%; Isle of Man batted first.
Isle of Man's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Turkey: 0% to 65%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Webstercaught · I Elec · Ilyas Ataullah 4 fours · 3 sixes | caught · I Elec · b Ilyas Ataullah | 48 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 177.78 |
| S Barnettrun out · Abdullah Khan Lodhi, Ilyas Ataullah · A Turkmen 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Abdullah Khan Lodhi, Ilyas Ataullah | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| EF Beardbowled · A Turkmen 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b A Turkmen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| A McAuleybowled · M Ozturk 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b M Ozturk | 16 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 177.78 |
| G Burrowsstumped · Abdullah Khan Lodhi · M Ozturk 3 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Abdullah Khan Lodhi · b M Ozturk | 52 | 43 | 3 | 0 | 120.93 |
| run out · Abdullah Khan Lodhi, R Nath |
| 23 |
| 20 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 115.00 |
| L Wardnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 17* | 11 | 1 | 1 | 154.55 |
|---|
| CJ Langfordrun out · A Turkmen · A Turkmen 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · A Turkmen | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
| JA Burrowsnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Turkmen0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 10.25 | 4 | 1 |
| M Ozturk0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 9.50 | 1 | 0 |
| GG Alta0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 9.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Ibrahim Kursad Dalyan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Ilyas Ataullah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (S Barnett, 0.1) · 2-1 (EF Beard, 0.2) · 3-18 (A McAuley, 2.0) · 4-85 (Oliver Webster, 8.4) · 5-148 (H McAleer, 16.0) · 6-152 (G Burrows, 16.4) · 7-169 (CJ Langford, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/2 |
| 2 | 12 | 18/3 |
| 3 | 16 | 34/3 |
| 4 | 10 | 44/3 |
| 5 | 15 | 59/3 |
| 6 | 4 | 63/3 |
| 7 | 7 | 70/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 74/3 |
| 9 | 13 | 87/4 |
| 10 | 7 | 94/4 |
| 11 | 9 | 103/4 |
| 12 | 7 | 110/4 |
| 13 | 5 | 115/4 |
| 14 | 9 | 124/4 |
| 15 | 9 | 133/4 |
| 16 | 15 | 148/5 |
| 17 | 8 | 156/6 |
| 18 | 10 | 166/6 |
| 19 | 7 | 173/7 |
| 20 | 9 | 182/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.