South AfricaversusWest Indies

22 Jun 2025 · T20

Three Ws Oval, Cave Hill, Barbados · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 6 wickets

South Africa20.0 overs113/6 West Indies19.2 overs116/4 Three Ws Oval, Cave Hill, Barbados ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

54%South Africa46%West Indies

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 7 and West Indies won 3
West Indies are playing at home in Barbados
On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than West Indies (1,568 vs 1,558 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 51%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 3% to 62% during the match (West Indies: 38% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 15.6: N de Klerk to J Glasgow, 2 runs to J Glasgow. West Indies up from 65% to 77%.
2nd inns 17.6: M Klaas to HK Matthews, 1 run to HK Matthews. West Indies up from 58% to 76%.
2nd inns 18.1: A Khaka to HK Matthews, six by HK Matthews. West Indies up from 76% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa113/6 West Indies116/4

Innings 1

South Africa

113/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Laura Wolvaardtcaught · Karishma Ramharack · Jahzara Claxton 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Karishma Ramharack · b Jahzara Claxton	16	16	2	0	100.00
Tazmin Britscaught · Chinelle Henry · Afy Fletcher 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Chinelle Henry · b Afy Fletcher	14	21	0	0	66.67
Marizanne Kappcaught · Jahzara Claxton · Hayley Matthews 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jahzara Claxton · b Hayley Matthews	0	3	0	0	0.00
Nadine de Klerkcaught · Hayley Matthews · Afy Fletcher 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Hayley Matthews · b Afy Fletcher	20	24	1	1	83.33

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	1	3.75	0
Shawnisha Hector0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	12	0	6.00	2
Jahzara Claxton0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	3
Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	2	3.25	1
Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	4
Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	0	10.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	6	9/0
3	10	19/0
4	6	25/0
5	5	30/1
6	1	31/2
7	1	32/2
8	8	40/2
9	3	43/3
10	10	53/3
11	5	58/3
12	9	67/3
13	4	71/4
14	3	74/5
15	5	79/5
16	5	84/6
17	5	89/6
18	6	95/6
19	8	103/6
20	10	113/6

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.