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Photo: Ranadipam Basu
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Ireland Women tour of Bangladesh · 2024/25 · Women
2 Dec 2024 · ODI
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 32%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Forbesbowled · Sultana Khatun 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sultana Khatun | 5 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 27.78 |
| Gaby Lewisbowled · Fahima Khatun 9 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Fahima Khatun | 52 | 79 | 9 | 0 | 65.82 |
| Amy Hunterlbw · Rabeya Khan 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Rabeya Khan | 23 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 57.50 |
| Orla Prendergastbowled · Shorna Akter 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shorna Akter | 27 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Leah Paulrun out · Nigar Sultana, Rabeya Khan · Shorna Akter 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nigar Sultana, Rabeya Khan | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 128.57 |
| Una Raymond-Hoey |
Ireland's chances ranged from 0% to 43% during the match (Bangladesh: 57% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Fahima Khatun · b Sultana Khatun |
| 6 |
| 15 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 40.00 |
| Arlene Kellybowled · Nahida Akter 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nahida Akter | 18 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 64.29 |
|---|
| Alana Dalzelllbw · Nahida Akter 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nahida Akter | 19 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 43.18 |
|---|
| Cara Murraystumped · Nigar Sultana · Fahima Khatun 2 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Nigar Sultana · b Fahima Khatun | 13 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 144.44 |
|---|
| FA Sargentnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
| Aimee Maguirestumped · Nigar Sultana · Fahima Khatun 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Nigar Sultana · b Fahima Khatun | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marufa Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sultana Khatun2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 29 | 2 | 2.90 | 1 | 0 |
 Nahida Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 55 | 2 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Rabeya Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 2.70 | 0 | 0 |
 Fahima Khatun0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 3 | 4.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Shorna Akter0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Ritu Moni0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-9 (Sarah Forbes, 5.4) · 2-57 (Amy Hunter, 19.1) · 3-97 (Gaby Lewis, 28.1) · 4-107 (Leah Paul, 29.5) · 5-123 (Orla Prendergast, 33.4) · 6-123 (Una Raymond-Hoey, 34.2) · 7-156 (Arlene Kelly, 45.0) · 8-163 (Alana Dalzell, 46.2) · 9-181 (Cara Murray, 49.1) · 10-185 (Aimee Maguire, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 3/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 7/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 11/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 14/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 18/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 19/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 24/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 26/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 28/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 30/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 34/1 |
| 15 | 9 | 43/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 46/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 49/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 52/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 57/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 59/2 |
| 21 | 8 | 67/2 |
| 22 | 1 | 68/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 73/2 |
| 24 | 7 | 80/2 |
| 25 | 1 | 81/2 |
| 26 | 7 | 88/2 |
| 27 | 3 | 91/2 |
| 28 | 6 | 97/2 |
| 29 | 4 | 101/3 |
| 30 | 8 | 109/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 112/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 114/4 |
| 33 | 7 | 121/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 123/5 |
| 35 | 0 | 123/6 |
| 36 | 3 | 126/6 |
| 37 | 1 | 127/6 |
| 38 | 2 | 129/6 |
| 39 | 3 | 132/6 |
| 40 | 2 | 134/6 |
| 41 | 4 | 138/6 |
| 42 | 6 | 144/6 |
| 43 | 5 | 149/6 |
| 44 | 4 | 153/6 |
| 45 | 3 | 156/7 |
| 46 | 3 | 159/7 |
| 47 | 8 | 167/8 |
| 48 | 6 | 173/8 |
| 49 | 8 | 181/8 |
| 50 | 4 | 185/10 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Murshida Khatun: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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