South AfricaversusIreland

Ireland more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than South Africa (1,752 vs 1,515 on our results rating)
• In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 5 and Ireland won 1
• South Africa are playing at home in South Africa

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Africa started on 31%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa's chances ranged from 23% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 77%).

Biggest swings

1. 1.3: J Maguire to F Tunnicliffe, F Tunnicliffe out. Ireland up from 69% to 77%.
2. 5.4: LA McBride to L Wolvaardt, six by L Wolvaardt. South Africa up from 48% to 53%.
3. 7.6: LA McBride to L Wolvaardt, six by L Wolvaardt. South Africa up from 58% to 64%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.