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Sri Lanka tour of South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
5 Dec 2024 · Test
St George's Park, Gqeberha · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aiden Markrambowled · Lahiru Kumara4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lahiru Kumara | 20 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 57.14 |
| Tony de Zorzilbw · Asitha Fernando 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Asitha Fernando | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Pathum Nissanka · Lahiru Kumara11 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Lahiru Kumara | 101 | 250 | 11 | 0 | 40.40 |
| Tristan Stubbscaught · Kusal Mendis · Lahiru Kumara 0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Kusal Mendis · b Lahiru Kumara |
| 4 |
| 18 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 22.22 |
 Temba Bavumacaught · Kusal Mendis · Asitha Fernando8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Asitha Fernando | 78 | 109 | 8 | 1 | 71.56 |
|---|
| David Bedinghambowled · Prabath Jayasuriya 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 6 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 31.58 |
|---|
| Kyle Verreynnenot out 12 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 105* | 133 | 12 | 3 | 78.95 |
|---|
 Marco Jansenbowled · Vishwa Fernando1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Vishwa Fernando | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
 Keshav Maharajcaught · Dimuth Karunaratne · Vishwa Fernando0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dimuth Karunaratne · b Vishwa Fernando | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Kagiso Rabadabowled · Asitha Fernando5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 23 | 40 | 5 | 0 | 57.50 |
|---|
 Dane Patersoncaught · Kamindu Mendis · Lahiru Kumara2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Lahiru Kumara | 9 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 90.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 4 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Vishwa Fernando6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 22.0 | 6 | 65 | 2 | 2.95 | 0 | 0 |
| Asitha Fernando2 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 24.0 | 2 | 102 | 3 | 4.25 | 3 | 0 |
| Lahiru Kumara3 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 17.4 | 3 | 79 | 4 | 4.47 | 1 | 2 |
| Prabath Jayasuriya4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 31.0 | 4 | 84 | 1 | 2.71 | 0 | 0 |
| Dhananjaya de Silva1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 2.89 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Tony de Zorzi, 1.1) · 2-32 (Aiden Markram, 11.2) · 3-44 (Tristan Stubbs, 15.4) · 4-177 (Temba Bavuma, 53.0) · 5-186 (David Bedingham, 59.2) · 6-263 (Ryan Rickelton, 85.3) · 7-269 (Marco Jansen, 86.3) · 8-269 (Keshav Maharaj, 88.1) · 9-325 (Kagiso Rabada, 100.5) · 10-358 (Dane Paterson, 103.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 9/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 21/1 |
| 7 | 0 | 21/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 22/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 26/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 31/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 32/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 36/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 37/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 43/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 43/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 45/3 |
| 17 | 6 | 51/3 |
| 18 | 0 | 51/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 57/3 |
| 20 | 1 | 58/3 |
| 21 | 0 | 58/3 |
| 22 | 7 | 65/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 66/3 |
| 24 | 5 | 71/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 76/3 |
| 26 | 0 | 76/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 82/3 |
| 28 | 1 | 83/3 |
| 29 | 10 | 93/3 |
| 30 | 5 | 98/3 |
| 31 | 1 | 99/3 |
| 32 | 4 | 103/3 |
| 33 | 2 | 105/3 |
| 34 | 1 | 106/3 |
| 35 | 8 | 114/3 |
| 36 | 3 | 117/3 |
| 37 | 1 | 118/3 |
| 38 | 4 | 122/3 |
| 39 | 1 | 123/3 |
| 40 | 10 | 133/3 |
| 41 | 4 | 137/3 |
| 42 | 7 | 144/3 |
| 43 | 3 | 147/3 |
| 44 | 3 | 150/3 |
| 45 | 2 | 152/3 |
| 46 | 3 | 155/3 |
| 47 | 2 | 157/3 |
| 48 | 6 | 163/3 |
| 49 | 0 | 163/3 |
| 50 | 2 | 165/3 |
| 51 | 5 | 170/3 |
| 52 | 3 | 173/3 |
| 53 | 4 | 177/4 |
| 54 | 2 | 179/4 |
| 55 | 2 | 181/4 |
| 56 | 2 | 183/4 |
| 57 | 1 | 184/4 |
| 58 | 1 | 185/4 |
| 59 | 1 | 186/4 |
| 60 | 1 | 187/5 |
| 61 | 1 | 188/5 |
| 62 | 3 | 191/5 |
| 63 | 1 | 192/5 |
| 64 | 2 | 194/5 |
| 65 | 0 | 194/5 |
| 66 | 2 | 196/5 |
| 67 | 4 | 200/5 |
| 68 | 5 | 205/5 |
| 69 | 6 | 211/5 |
| 70 | 5 | 216/5 |
| 71 | 4 | 220/5 |
| 72 | 0 | 220/5 |
| 73 | 4 | 224/5 |
| 74 | 1 | 225/5 |
| 75 | 2 | 227/5 |
| 76 | 2 | 229/5 |
| 77 | 3 | 232/5 |
| 78 | 3 | 235/5 |
| 79 | 7 | 242/5 |
| 80 | 9 | 251/5 |
| 81 | 4 | 255/5 |
| 82 | 1 | 256/5 |
| 83 | 0 | 256/5 |
| 84 | 2 | 258/5 |
| 85 | 5 | 263/5 |
| 86 | 5 | 268/6 |
| 87 | 1 | 269/7 |
| 88 | 0 | 269/7 |
| 89 | 0 | 269/8 |
| 90 | 5 | 274/8 |
| 91 | 5 | 279/8 |
| 92 | 4 | 283/8 |
| 93 | 4 | 287/8 |
| 94 | 1 | 288/8 |
| 95 | 8 | 296/8 |
| 96 | 0 | 296/8 |
| 97 | 3 | 299/8 |
| 98 | 2 | 301/8 |
| 99 | 15 | 316/8 |
| 100 | 8 | 324/8 |
| 101 | 1 | 325/9 |
| 102 | 7 | 332/9 |
| 103 | 18 | 350/9 |
| 104 | 8 | 358/10 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Vishwa Fernando: Dave Morton · Public domain
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dane Paterson: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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