Papua New GuineaversusSamoa

Papua New Guinea more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Papua New Guinea rate stronger than Samoa (1,530 vs 1,291 on our results rating)
• In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Papua New Guinea won 1 and Samoa won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Papua New Guinea started on 83%; Papua New Guinea batted first.

Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 0% to 87% during the match (Samoa: 13% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1. 11.2: MJ Tugaga to A Vala, HGV Vare out. Samoa up from 34% to 44%.
2. 2nd inns 4.4: A Nao to D Visser, D Visser out. Papua New Guinea up from 18% to 26%.
3. 2nd inns 13.6: D Ravu to CK Jasmat, four by CK Jasmat. Samoa up from 84% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.