Melbourne RenegadesversusSydney Thunder

29 Oct 2026 · T20

Junction Oval, Melbourne · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sydney Thunder won by 6 wickets

Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs138/9 Sydney Thunder17.0 overs140/4 Junction Oval, Melbourne ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 50%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Thunder is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 0% to 68% during the match (Sydney Thunder: 32% to 100%).

Biggest swings

7.2: HJ Darlington to C Webb, C Webb out. Sydney Thunder up from 32% to 40%.
10.1: HJ Darlington to HK Matthews, HK Matthews out. Sydney Thunder up from 35% to 42%.
2nd inns 4.1: T Flintoff to G Voll, G Voll out. Melbourne Renegades up from 17% to 24%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Melbourne Renegades138/9 Sydney Thunder140/4

Innings 1