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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier C · 2026 · Men
15 Aug 2026 · T20
Kerava National Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Portugal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Germany started on 28%; Germany batted first.
Germany's chances ranged from 6% to 51% during the match (Portugal: 49% to 94%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B Kohler-Cadmorecaught · Moisés Henriques · J Martins 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Moisés Henriques · b J Martins | 17 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 106.25 |
| Musadiq Ahmedcaught and bowled · Sirajullah Khadim 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Sirajullah Khadim | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 45.45 |
| Joshua van Heerdenrun out · Moisés Henriques · R Hashu 3 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Moisés Henriques | 31 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 147.62 |
| Harmanjot Singhcaught · J Martins · Sirajullah Khadim 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · J Martins · b Sirajullah Khadim | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
| Fayaz Khancaught · Moisés Henriques · U Shantu 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Moisés Henriques · b U Shantu | 17 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 130.77 |
| Muslim Yarcaught · Edward Fleming · Sebastian de Oliveira 2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Edward Fleming · b Sebastian de Oliveira | 36 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 171.43 |
|---|
| Sachin Mandycaught · R Hashu · Sebastian de Oliveira 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Hashu · b Sebastian de Oliveira | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Shahid Afridi (2)lbw · J Martins 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b J Martins | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Sajid Liaqatnot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 13* | 10 | 0 | 1 | 130.00 |
|---|
| V Jatinder Kumarcaught · C Nunes · Sebastian de Oliveira 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · C Nunes · b Sebastian de Oliveira | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Ahmad Ullahnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian de Oliveira1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 20 | 3 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Sirajullah Khadim1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 27 | 2 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| J Martins0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 7.75 | 1 | 0 |
| U Shantu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| R Hashu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Edward Fleming0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-19 (Musadiq Ahmed, 3.4) · 2-23 (B Kohler-Cadmore, 4.5) · 3-50 (Harmanjot Singh, 8.2) · 4-78 (Joshua van Heerden, 11.3) · 5-79 (Fayaz Khan, 12.1) · 6-112 (Sachin Mandy, 15.3) · 7-123 (Shahid Afridi (2), 16.4) · 8-131 (Muslim Yar, 18.2) · 9-131 (V Jatinder Kumar, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 19/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 19/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 24/2 |
| 6 | 14 | 38/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 42/2 |
| 8 | 7 | 49/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 52/3 |
| 10 | 10 | 62/3 |
| 11 | 10 | 72/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 79/4 |
| 13 | 8 | 87/5 |
| 14 | 4 | 91/5 |
| 15 | 19 | 110/5 |
| 16 | 6 | 116/6 |
| 17 | 7 | 123/7 |
| 18 | 8 | 131/7 |
| 19 | 0 | 131/9 |
| 20 | 9 | 140/9 |
Moisés Henriques: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
