Jamaica KingsmenversusBarbados Tridents

12 Sept 2026 · T20

Kensington Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Barbados Tridents won by 2 wickets

Jamaica Kingsmen20.0 overs150/9 Barbados Tridents20.0 overs151/8 Kensington Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Jamaica Kingsmen started on 52%; Jamaica Kingsmen batted first.

Jamaica Kingsmen’s chance of winning (%) · Barbados Tridents is the rest

Jamaica Kingsmen's chances ranged from 22% to 95% during the match (Barbados Tridents: 5% to 78%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 10.2: VO Lawes to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. Jamaica Kingsmen up from 58% to 74%.
2nd inns 19.2: OF Smith to G Motie, six by G Motie. Barbados Tridents up from 10% to 62%.
2nd inns 19.6: OF Smith to G Motie, 1 run to G Motie. Barbados Tridents up from 78% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Jamaica Kingsmen150/9 Barbados Tridents151/8

Innings 1