Sri LankaversusWest Indies

28 Jun 2024 · T20

Recorded result

West Indies won by 6 wickets

Sri Lanka20.0 overs141/7 West Indies19.5 overs142/4 Mahinda Rajapaksa International Cricket Stadium, Sooriyawewa, Hambantota ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

59%Sri Lanka41%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than West Indies (1,668 vs 1,567 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, West Indies won 8 and Sri Lanka won 2
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 55%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 2% to 71% during the match (West Indies: 29% to 98%).

Biggest swings

0.2: CA Henry to RMVD Gunaratne, RMVD Gunaratne out. West Indies up from 42% to 53%.
2nd inns 7.6: WK Dilhari to SR Taylor, SR Taylor out. Sri Lanka up from 31% to 40%.
2nd inns 19.5: K Kavindi to CA Henry, 1 run to CA Henry. West Indies up from 91% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka141/7 West Indies142/4

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

141/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Vishmi Gunaratnecaught and bowled · Chinelle Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Chinelle Henry	2	2	0	0	100.00
Chamari Atapattucaught · Shamilia Connell · Aaliyah Alleyne 3 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Shamilia Connell · b Aaliyah Alleyne	38	38	3	3	100.00
Harshitha Madavicaught and bowled · Afy Fletcher 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Afy Fletcher	28	26	4	0	107.69
Kavisha Dilharicaught · Chinelle Henry · Afy Fletcher 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Chinelle Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	16	1	5.33	0
Shamilia Connell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	0	5.00	0
Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	22	0	7.33	0
Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	5
Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	1
Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	1	10.00	0
Cherry-Ann Fraser0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	21	0	10.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	1	5/1
3	2	7/1
4	9	16/1
5	7	23/1
6	7	30/1
7	7	37/1
8	6	43/1
9	12	55/1
10	3	58/2
11	8	66/2
12	12	78/2
13	10	88/2
14	4	92/3
15	8	100/4
16	4	104/5
17	8	112/5
18	8	120/5
19	13	133/6
20	8	141/7

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