NepalversusNetherlands

5 Mar 2024 · T20

Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Netherlands won by 4 wickets

Nepal20.0 overs184/8 Netherlands19.3 overs189/6 Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

59%Nepal41%Netherlands

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Netherlands (1,592 vs 1,553 on our results rating)
Nepal are playing at home in Nepal
In the last 9 T20 internationals between these sides, Netherlands won 5 and Nepal won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nepal started on 59%; Nepal batted first.

Nepal’s chance of winning (%) · Netherlands is the rest

Nepal's chances ranged from 5% to 81% during the match (Netherlands: 19% to 96%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.3: A Bohara to SA Engelbrecht, six by SA Engelbrecht. Netherlands up from 46% to 64%.
2nd inns 18.2: Kushal Malla to T van der Gugten, six by T van der Gugten. Netherlands up from 70% to 89%.
2nd inns 18.6: Kushal Malla to T van der Gugten, four by T van der Gugten. Netherlands up from 63% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nepal184/8 Netherlands189/6

Innings 1

Nepal

184/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nepal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kushal Bhurtelbowled · Timm van der Gugten 1 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b Timm van der Gugten	20	10	1	2	200.00
Aasif Sheikhlbw · Michael Levitt 1 fours · 3 sixes	lbw · b Michael Levitt	47	37	1	3	127.03
Rohit Kumarcaught · Scott Edwards · Michael Levitt 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Scott Edwards · b Michael Levitt	25	19	3	1	131.58
Gulsan Jhacaught · Shariz Ahmad · Fred Klaassen 0 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Shariz Ahmad · b Fred Klaassen	34	25

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Vivian Kingma0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	0	5.50	2
Fred Klaassen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	2	9.25	1
Timm van der Gugten0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	29	2	9.67	1
Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	0	6.50	0
Shariz Ahmad0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	31	0	15.50	3
Michael Levitt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	35	2	11.67	0
Sybrand Engelbrecht0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	2	7.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	9	11/0
3	6	17/0
4	8	25/1
5	15	40/1
6	15	55/1
7	7	62/1
8	14	76/1
9	6	82/1
10	6	88/2
11	6	94/2
12	17	111/2
13	7	118/2
14	9	127/3
15	6	133/4
16	4	137/4
17	21	158/4
18	10	168/6
19	6	174/8
20	10	184/8

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