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Photo: Rae Allen
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Big Bash League · 2024/25 · Men
16 Jan 2025 · T20
Brisbane Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Brisbane Heat started on 51%; Brisbane Heat batted first.
Brisbane Heat's chances ranged from 12% to 84% during the match (Hobart Hurricanes: 16% to 88%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Usman Khawajacaught · Jake Doran · Nathan Ellis3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jake Doran · b Nathan Ellis | 23 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 255.56 |
| Nathan McSweeneycaught · Caleb Jewell · Marcus Bean 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Caleb Jewell · b Marcus Bean | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 Marnus Labuschagnecaught and bowled · Nathan Ellis8 fours · 2 sixes | caught and bowled · b Nathan Ellis | 77 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 175.00 |
 Matt Renshawrun out · Tim David, Matthew Wade · Mitchell Owen3 fours · 2 sixes | run out |
| 40 |
| 25 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 160.00 |
| Max Bryantcaught · Riley Meredith · Mitchell Owen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Riley Meredith · b Mitchell Owen | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Tom Alsopcaught · Tim David · Nathan Ellis4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tim David · b Nathan Ellis | 39 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 144.44 |
|---|
 Michael Nesernot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Meredith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 14.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Bean0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 8.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 42 | 3 | 10.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Peter Hatzoglou0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim David0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Owen0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 6.67 | 0 | 1 |
| Nikhil Chaudhary0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (Nathan McSweeney, 1.1) · 2-34 (Usman Khawaja, 3.3) · 3-103 (Matt Renshaw, 9.4) · 4-111 (Max Bryant, 11.2) · 5-196 (Tom Alsop, 19.1) · 6-201 (Marnus Labuschagne, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 13/1 |
| 3 | 11 | 24/1 |
| 4 | 19 | 43/2 |
| 5 | 14 | 57/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 64/2 |
| 7 | 15 | 79/2 |
| 8 | 10 | 89/2 |
| 9 | 7 | 96/2 |
| 10 | 7 | 103/3 |
| 11 | 8 | 111/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 116/4 |
| 13 | 6 | 122/4 |
| 14 | 6 | 128/4 |
| 15 | 20 | 148/4 |
| 16 | 13 | 161/4 |
| 17 | 8 | 169/4 |
| 18 | 9 | 178/4 |
| 19 | 18 | 196/4 |
| 20 | 5 | 201/6 |
Tom Alsop: Dave Morton · Public domain
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Matthew Wade: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Michael Neser: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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