Adelaide StrikersversusMelbourne Renegades

3 Nov 2024 · T20

Junction Oval, Melbourne · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Renegades won by 2 wickets

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs157/5 Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs158/8 Junction Oval, Melbourne ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 61%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Renegades is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 12% to 97% during the match (Melbourne Renegades: 3% to 88%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.6: ML Schutt to N Faltum, 2 runs to N Faltum. Melbourne Renegades up from 66% to 87%.
2nd inns 18.1: A Wellington to NE Stalenberg, NE Stalenberg out. Adelaide Strikers up from 13% to 33%.
2nd inns 19.6: AC Mushangwe to N Faltum, 2 runs to N Faltum. Melbourne Renegades up from 61% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers157/5 Melbourne Renegades158/8

Innings 1