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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A · 2026 · Men
19 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Sweden more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Slovenia started on 18%; Slovenia batted first.
Slovenia's chances ranged from 0% to 23% during the match (Sweden: 77% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarun Sharma (2)bowled · Abdul Naser Baluch 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Abdul Naser Baluch | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Taher Muhammadcaught · A Mundra · Zabiullah Zahid 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Mundra · b Zabiullah Zahid | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| OJR Grovesnot out 3 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 77* | 66 | 3 | 3 | 116.67 |
| Izaz Alicaught · Saeed Ahmed (2) · Samiullah Rahmani 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saeed Ahmed (2) · b Samiullah Rahmani | 25 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 96.15 |
| Shahid Arshadretired out · Zabiullah Zahid 0 fours · 0 sixes | retired out | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 61.54 |
| JL Kovacic |
| caught · Abdul Naser Baluch · b Awais Ahmad |
| 5 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 83.33 |
| Waqar Khanrun out · W Boshoff · Awais Ahmad 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · W Boshoff | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul Naser Baluch0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Zabiullah Zahid0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Zaid Ahmad0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 7.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Samiullah Rahmani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 1 | 0 |
| SN Swamy0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Awais Ahmad0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 1 |
1-0 (Tarun Sharma (2), 0.1) · 2-16 (Taher Muhammad, 4.0) · 3-85 (Izaz Ali, 13.1) · 4-123 (Shahid Arshad, 18.0) · 5-130 (JL Kovacic, 19.3) · 6-133 (Waqar Khan, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 16/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 21/2 |
| 6 | 9 | 30/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 36/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 40/2 |
| 9 | 11 | 51/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 56/2 |
| 11 | 7 | 63/2 |
| 12 | 8 | 71/2 |
| 13 | 14 | 85/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 87/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 93/3 |
| 16 | 11 | 104/3 |
| 17 | 12 | 116/3 |
| 18 | 7 | 123/4 |
| 19 | 7 | 130/4 |
| 20 | 3 | 133/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.