Comilla VictoriansversusDurdanto Dhaka

19 Jan 2024 · T20

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Durdanto Dhaka won by 5 wickets

Comilla Victorians20.0 overs143/6 Durdanto Dhaka19.3 overs147/5 Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Comilla Victorians started on 62%; Comilla Victorians batted first.

Comilla Victorians’s chance of winning (%) · Durdanto Dhaka is the rest

Comilla Victorians's chances ranged from 3% to 72% during the match (Durdanto Dhaka: 28% to 97%).

Biggest swings

3.6: PC de Silva to Liton Das, Liton Das out. Durdanto Dhaka up from 34% to 43%.
2nd inns 18.4: Khushdil Shah to Saif Hassan, Saif Hassan out. Comilla Victorians up from 8% to 18%.
2nd inns 18.6: Khushdil Shah to Irfan Sukkur, six by Irfan Sukkur. Durdanto Dhaka up from 77% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Comilla Victorians143/6 Durdanto Dhaka147/5

Innings 1