FranceversusItaly

10 Jun 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Italy won by 5 wickets

France20.0 overs116/10 Italy18.2 overs118/5 Simar Cricket Ground, Rome ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Italy more likely to win

41%France59%Italy

Why

Italy are playing at home in Italy
On results in T20 internationals so far, Italy rate stronger than France (1,518 vs 1,494 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

France started on 38%; France batted first.

France’s chance of winning (%) · Italy is the rest

France's chances ranged from 0% to 50% during the match (Italy: 50% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: TJ Draca to Zain Ahmad, Zain Ahmad out. Italy up from 56% to 66%.
5.6: S di Bartolomeo to H Niaz, H Niaz out. Italy up from 57% to 65%.
2nd inns 1.3: Noman Amjad to AJ Mosca, J Mosca out. France up from 24% to 50%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

France116/10 Italy118/5

Innings 1

France

116/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

France batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
H Niazcaught · AJ Mosca · S di Bartolomeo 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · AJ Mosca · b S di Bartolomeo	28	18	4	1	155.56
Zain Ahmadcaught · S di Bartolomeo · Thomas Draca 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · S di Bartolomeo · b Thomas Draca	0	3	0	0	0.00
G Mckeoncaught · Syed Naqvi · Gareth Berg 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Syed Naqvi · b Gareth Berg	14	18	2	0	77.78
C Robertscaught and bowled · S di Bartolomeo 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught and bowled · b S di Bartolomeo	28	24	2	1	116.67
L Canessanecaught · Harry Manenti · CJPF Kalugamage 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Harry Manenti · b CJPF Kalugamage	17	22	1	0	77.27

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Harry Manenti0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50	0
Thomas Draca0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	2
Gareth Berg0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0
S di Bartolomeo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	2	5.25	0
CJPF Kalugamage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	4	4.25	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	4	14/1
3	5	19/1
4	16	35/1
5	3	38/1
6	5	43/2
7	5	48/3
8	2	50/3
9	4	54/3
10	9	63/3
11	5	68/3
12	8	76/3
13	4	80/3
14	4	84/4
15	7	91/5
16	5	96/5
17	11	107/5
18	3	110/8
19	3	113/8
20	3	116/10

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