SerbiaversusSlovenia

8 Jun 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Serbia won by 24 runs

Serbia20.0 overs226/3 Slovenia20.0 overs202/8 Lisicji Jarak Cricket Ground, Belgrade ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Serbia more likely to win

70%Serbia30%Slovenia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Serbia rate stronger than Slovenia (1,348 vs 1,276 on our results rating)
Serbia are playing at home in Serbia
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Serbia won 1 and Slovenia won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Serbia started on 67%; Serbia batted first.

Serbia’s chance of winning (%) · Slovenia is the rest

Serbia's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (Slovenia: 0% to 38%).

Biggest swings

4.6: Muhammad Siddiqui to BM Pecic, BM Pecic out. Slovenia up from 22% to 30%.
5.6: Izaz Ali to A Dizija, A Dizija out. Slovenia up from 27% to 36%.
2nd inns 11.3: B Dugic to Tarun Sharma, Tarun Sharma out. Serbia up from 87% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Serbia226/3 Slovenia202/8

Innings 1

Serbia

226/320.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Serbia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
A Dizijabowled · Izaz Ali 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Izaz Ali	16	18	3	0	88.89
BM Pecicbowled · Muhammad Siddiqui 3 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b Muhammad Siddiqui	28	18	3	2	155.56
WAE Burtonnot out 5 fours · 7 sixes	not out	84*	45	5	7	186.67
LA Dunbarcaught · Izaz Ali · Waqar Khan 6 fours · 5 sixes	caught · Izaz Ali · b Waqar Khan	72	37	6	5	194.59
V Zimonjicnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes	not out	1*	2	0	0	50.00
Extras	byes: 2 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 21 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0

Muhammad Siddiqui0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	31	1	7.75	5
DK Pallekonda0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	47	0	15.67	4
Izaz Ali1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	23	1	5.75	1
S Koppolu0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	53	0	13.25	8
Taher Muhammad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	30	0	10.00	0
OJR Groves0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	23	0	23.00	2
Waqar Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	15	1	15.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	12	12/0
2	14	26/0
3	7	33/0
4	6	39/0
5	2	41/1
6	8	49/2
7	9	58/2
8	1	59/2
9	14	73/2
10	9	82/2
11	10	92/2
12	5	97/2
13	23	120/2
14	6	126/2
15	8	134/2
16	19	153/2
17	17	170/2
18	24	194/2
19	16	210/3
20	16	226/3

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