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Photo: NZDF
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Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
30 Dec 2024 · T20
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 71%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 38%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Robinsonbowled · Wanindu Hasaranga 3 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 41 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 120.59 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Matheesha Pathirana · Nuwan Thushara0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matheesha Pathirana · b Nuwan Thushara | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Mark Chapmanstumped · Kusal Mendis · Wanindu Hasaranga 2 fours · 2 sixes | stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 42 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 144.83 |
| Glenn Phillipscaught · Pathum Nissanka · Matheesha Pathirana 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Matheesha Pathirana | 23 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 143.75 |
| Daryl Mitchellrun out · Binura Fernando · Binura Fernando2 fours · 0 sixes |
| run out · Binura Fernando |
| 18 |
| 15 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 120.00 |
| Mitchell Haynot out 4 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 41* | 19 | 4 | 2 | 215.79 |
|---|
| Michael Bracewellnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuwan Thushara0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Binura Fernando0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 9.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 13.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Matheesha Pathirana0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 9.25 | 3 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-13 (Rachin Ravindra, 2.3) · 2-82 (Tim Robinson, 9.2) · 3-116 (Mark Chapman, 13.2) · 4-122 (Glenn Phillips, 14.3) · 5-145 (Daryl Mitchell, 17.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 25/1 |
| 5 | 11 | 36/1 |
| 6 | 12 | 48/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 57/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 63/1 |
| 9 | 13 | 76/1 |
| 10 | 10 | 86/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 91/2 |
| 12 | 9 | 100/2 |
| 13 | 15 | 115/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 120/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 124/4 |
| 16 | 9 | 133/4 |
| 17 | 10 | 143/4 |
| 18 | 9 | 152/5 |
| 19 | 18 | 170/5 |
| 20 | 16 | 186/5 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
