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ICC Women's T20 World Cup Europe Division 2 Qualifier · 2025 · Women
26 May 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Italy more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sweden started on 31%; Sweden batted first.
Sweden's chances ranged from 0% to 48% during the match (Italy: 52% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Vaidyacaught · M Rathnayake · EL Bartram 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Rathnayake · b EL Bartram | 13 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 81.25 |
| Eman Asimrun out · Chloe Piparo, N Asuramanage · Chloe Piparo 5 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Chloe Piparo, N Asuramanage | 58 | 56 | 5 | 1 | 103.57 |
| E Thelanderstumped · M Rathnayake · Ilenia Sims 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · M Rathnayake · b Ilenia Sims | 6 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 35.29 |
| G Shuklabowled · ECB Moore 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b ECB Moore | 16 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Jayasooriyarun out · Ilenia Sims, ECB Moore · ECB Moore 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ilenia Sims, ECB Moore | 10 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 76.92 |
| not out |
| 2* |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 11 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Mahamalage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
| EL Bartram0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 3.67 | 1 | 0 |
| K Peddrick0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 5 | 0 |
| S Kanankege0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 4.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Ilenia Sims0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
| N Asuramanage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| ECB Moore0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 1 | 0 |
| D Nanayakkara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Chloe Piparo0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 1 |
1-36 (A Vaidya, 5.1) · 2-68 (E Thelander, 12.1) · 3-92 (G Shukla, 16.0) · 4-111 (Eman Asim, 18.5) · 5-118 (Jayasooriya, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 15 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 30/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 36/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 37/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 43/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 48/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 56/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 59/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 64/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 68/1 |
| 13 | 7 | 75/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 82/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 88/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 92/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 97/3 |
| 18 | 6 | 103/3 |
| 19 | 9 | 112/4 |
| 20 | 6 | 118/5 |
Chloe Piparo: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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