Royal Challengers BangaloreversusUP Warriorz

4 Mar 2024 · T20

M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bangalore won by 23 runs

Royal Challengers Bangalore20.0 overs198/3 UP Warriorz20.0 overs175/8 M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bangalore started on 45%; Royal Challengers Bangalore batted first.

Royal Challengers Bangalore’s chance of winning (%) · UP Warriorz is the rest

Royal Challengers Bangalore's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (UP Warriorz: 0% to 56%).

Biggest swings

5.3: K Anjali Sarvani to S Meghana, S Meghana out. UP Warriorz up from 30% to 38%.
2nd inns 4.2: SFM Devine to KP Navgire, KP Navgire out. Royal Challengers Bangalore up from 70% to 80%.
2nd inns 6.3: G Wareham to AC Jayangani, AC Jayangani out. Royal Challengers Bangalore up from 78% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bangalore198/3 UP Warriorz175/8

Innings 1