IrelandversusBangladesh

7 Dec 2024 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Ireland won by 47 runs

Ireland20.0 overs134/5 Bangladesh17.1 overs87/10 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Ireland more likely to win

77%Ireland23%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,688 vs 1,422 on our results rating)
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 6 and Ireland won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 78%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 28%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.4: O Prendergast to S Mostary, S Mostary out. Ireland up from 77% to 84%.
2nd inns 3.1: O Prendergast to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. Ireland up from 79% to 87%.
2nd inns 12.4: L Delany to Shorna Akter, Shorna Akter out. Ireland up from 85% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland134/5 Bangladesh87/10

Innings 1

Ireland

134/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Amy Hunterlbw · Jannatul Ferdus 4 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Jannatul Ferdus	23	23	4	0	100.00
Gaby Lewiscaught · Dilara Akter · Nahida Akter 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dilara Akter · b Nahida Akter	14	18	3	0	77.78
Orla Prendergastcaught · Sanjida Akter Meghla · Nahida Akter 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Sanjida Akter Meghla · b Nahida Akter	32	25	3	1	128.00
Leah Paulcaught · Taj Nehar · Jahanara Alam 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Taj Nehar · b Jahanara Alam	16	19	1	0	84.21
Laura Delanybowled · Fahima Khatun 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Fahima Khatun	35	25	4	0	140.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
Jahanara Alam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	25	1	6.25
Sanjida Akter Meghla0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	27	0	6.75
Jannatul Ferdus1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	29	1	7.25
Nahida Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	2	5.00
Fahima Khatun0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	32	1	8.00

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	6	10/0
3	9	19/0
4	9	28/0
5	5	33/0
6	1	34/1
7	8	42/1
8	6	48/1
9	0	48/2
10	5	53/2
11	8	61/2
12	12	73/2
13	4	77/3
14	5	82/3
15	8	90/3
16	11	101/3
17	6	107/3
18	7	114/4
19	11	125/5
20	9	134/5

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