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Photo: Aravind Sivaraj
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Women's T20 World Cup Qualifier · 2024 · Women
5 May 2024 · T20
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photographRecorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 74%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 0% to 75% during the match (Scotland: 25% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Hunterbowled · Kathryn Bryce 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kathryn Bryce | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Gaby Lewiscaught · Ailsa Lister · Kathryn Bryce 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ailsa Lister · b Kathryn Bryce | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Orla Prendergastrun out · Sarah Bryce, Rachel Slater · Kathryn Bryce 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sarah Bryce, Rachel Slater | 11 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 137.50 |
| Laura Delanybowled · Kathryn Bryce 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kathryn Bryce | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
| Leah Paulcaught · Abtaha Maqsood · Rachel Slater 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abtaha Maqsood · b Rachel Slater | 45 | 51 | 3 | 0 | 88.24 |
| caught · Abtaha Maqsood · b Kathryn Bryce |
| 1 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 12.50 |
| Rebecca Stokellstumped · Sarah Bryce · Abtaha Maqsood 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Sarah Bryce · b Abtaha Maqsood | 8 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Arlene Kellycaught · Ailsa Lister · Rachel Slater 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ailsa Lister · b Rachel Slater | 35 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 129.63 |
|---|
| Ava Canningnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Cara Murraybowled · Rachel Slater 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rachel Slater | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Jane Maguirenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kathryn Bryce0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Rachel Slater0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 32 | 3 | 10.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Priyanaz Chatterji0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Hannah Rainey0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Abtaha Maqsood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Katherine Fraser0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Amy Hunter, 0.2) · 2-1 (Gaby Lewis, 0.5) · 3-12 (Orla Prendergast, 2.1) · 4-21 (Laura Delany, 4.3) · 5-25 (Eimear Richardson, 6.1) · 6-47 (Rebecca Stokell, 11.0) · 7-107 (Arlene Kelly, 19.2) · 8-108 (Leah Paul, 19.4) · 9-108 (Cara Murray, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | 12/2 |
| 3 | 1 | 13/3 |
| 4 | 6 | 19/3 |
| 5 | 4 | 23/4 |
| 6 | 2 | 25/4 |
| 7 | 3 | 28/5 |
| 8 | 5 | 33/5 |
| 9 | 4 | 37/5 |
| 10 | 3 | 40/5 |
| 11 | 7 | 47/6 |
| 12 | 4 | 51/6 |
| 13 | 6 | 57/6 |
| 14 | 10 | 67/6 |
| 15 | 14 | 81/6 |
| 16 | 3 | 84/6 |
| 17 | 6 | 90/6 |
| 18 | 7 | 97/6 |
| 19 | 6 | 103/6 |
| 20 | 7 | 110/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.