United States of AmericaversusBangladesh

25 May 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 10 wickets

United States of America20.0 overs104/9 Bangladesh11.4 overs108/0 Prairie View Cricket Complex, Houston ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

United States of America more likely to win

72%United States of America28%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, United States of America rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,617 vs 1,551 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, United States of America won 2 and Bangladesh won 0
United States of America are playing at home in the United States

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

United States of America started on 70%; United States of America batted first.

United States of America’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

United States of America's chances ranged from 0% to 84% during the match (Bangladesh: 16% to 100%).

Biggest swings

5.5: Mustafizur Rahman to Shayan Jahangir, Shayan Jahangir out. Bangladesh up from 25% to 32%.
11.3: Tanzim Hasan Sakib to Aaron Jones, Aaron Jones out. Bangladesh up from 57% to 65%.
12.2: Rishad Hossain to Milind Kumar, Milind Kumar out. Bangladesh up from 68% to 77%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

United States of America104/9 Bangladesh108/0

Innings 1