AustraliaversusPakistan

16 Nov 2024 · T20

Sydney Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 13 runs

Australia20.0 overs147/9 Pakistan19.4 overs134/10 Sydney Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

84%Australia16%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Pakistan (1,755 vs 1,510 on our results rating)
Australia are playing at home in Australia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 84%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 51% to 99% during the match (Pakistan: 1% to 49%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.5: SH Johnson to Sahibzada Farhan, Sahibzada Farhan out. Australia up from 65% to 77%.
2nd inns 15.2: SH Johnson to Usman Khan, Usman Khan out. Australia up from 53% to 70%.
2nd inns 15.4: SH Johnson to Abbas Afridi, Abbas Afridi out. Australia up from 63% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia147/9 Pakistan134/10

Innings 1

Australia

147/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Matthew Shortbowled · Abbas Afridi 2 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b Abbas Afridi	32	17	2	2	188.24
Jake Fraser-McGurkcaught · Salman Ali Agha · Haris Rauf 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Haris Rauf	20	9	3	1	222.22
Josh Ingliscaught · Sufyan Moqeem · Haris Rauf 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sufyan Moqeem · b Haris Rauf	0	2	0	0	0.00
Glenn Maxwellcaught · Sahibzada Farhan · Sufyan Moqeem 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sahibzada Farhan · b Sufyan Moqeem	21	20	2	0	105.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	0	9.75	0
Naseem Shah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	44	0	11.00	1
Haris Rauf0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	4	5.50	1
Abbas Afridi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	3	4.25	2
Sufyan Moqeem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	2	5.25	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	21	21/0
2	16	37/0
3	11	48/0
4	4	52/2
5	4	56/3
6	5	61/3
7	3	64/3
8	7	71/3
9	12	83/3
10	4	87/4
11	5	92/4
12	5	97/5
13	2	99/5
14	5	104/5
15	11	115/6
16	9	124/6
17	7	131/6
18	8	139/6
19	2	141/7
20	6	147/9

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