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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C · 2024/25 · Men
27 Nov 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Botswana more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
St Helena started on 21%; St Helena batted first.
St Helena's chances ranged from 0% to 27% during the match (Botswana: 73% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Crowiecaught · K Piet · Mmoloki Mooketsi 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · K Piet · b Mmoloki Mooketsi | 26 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 81.25 |
| A Yoncaught · V Mbazo · Tharindu Perera 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · V Mbazo · b Tharindu Perera | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Delroy Leorun out · V Mbazo, K Piet · Karabo Motlhanka 0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · V Mbazo, K Piet | 13 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 65.00 |
| AR Leocaught and bowled · K Piet 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b K Piet | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| D Young (2)bowled · K Piet 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b K Piet | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
| CR Richards |
| caught · Thatayaone Tshose · b Karabo Motlhanka |
| 3 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 30.00 |
| Joey Thomascaught · Reginald Nehonde · Mmoloki Mooketsi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Reginald Nehonde · b Mmoloki Mooketsi | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| B Isaaccaught · B Kgosiemang · Karabo Motlhanka 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · B Kgosiemang · b Karabo Motlhanka | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Dane Leocaught · K Piet · Mmoloki Mooketsi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · K Piet · b Mmoloki Mooketsi | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| BK Stroudcaught · B Kgosiemang · Vinoo Balakrishnan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · B Kgosiemang · b Vinoo Balakrishnan | 9 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 47.37 |
|---|
| J Yonnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 5 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B Khumalo0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 1 | 2 |
| Tharindu Perera0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Thatayaone Tshose0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| K Piet0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Karabo Motlhanka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 2.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Mmoloki Mooketsi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Vinoo Balakrishnan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-10 (A Yon, 1.1) · 2-43 (Delroy Leo, 7.3) · 3-46 (AR Leo, 8.2) · 4-50 (D Young (2), 8.5) · 5-53 (S Crowie, 10.2) · 6-57 (CR Richards, 12.0) · 7-64 (B Isaac, 13.4) · 8-64 (Joey Thomas, 14.1) · 9-67 (Dane Leo, 16.3) · 10-78 (BK Stroud, 18.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 13/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 20/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 23/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 26/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 33/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 42/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 45/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 50/4 |
| 10 | 3 | 53/4 |
| 11 | 2 | 55/5 |
| 12 | 2 | 57/6 |
| 13 | 4 | 61/6 |
| 14 | 3 | 64/7 |
| 15 | 1 | 65/8 |
| 16 | 1 | 66/8 |
| 17 | 4 | 70/9 |
| 18 | 4 | 74/9 |
| 19 | 4 | 78/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.