PakistanversusWest Indies

31 Jul 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 14 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs178/6 West Indies20.0 overs164/7 Central Broward Regional Park Stadium Turf Ground, Lauderhill ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

74%Pakistan26%West Indies

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 9 and West Indies won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Pakistan rate stronger than West Indies (1,537 vs 1,460 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 73%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 38%).

Biggest swings

3.2: S Joseph to Sahibzada Farhan, Sahibzada Farhan out. West Indies up from 19% to 26%.
2nd inns 11.1: Mohammad Nawaz to J Andrew, J Andrew out. Pakistan up from 73% to 81%.
2nd inns 11.4: Mohammad Nawaz to J Charles, J Charles out. Pakistan up from 81% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan178/6 West Indies164/7

Innings 1

Pakistan

178/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sahibzada Farhanlbw · Shamar Joseph 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Shamar Joseph	14	12	2	0	116.67
Saim Ayublbw · Jason Holder 5 fours · 2 sixes	lbw · b Jason Holder	57	38	5	2	150.00
Fakhar Zamancaught · Romario Shepherd · Shamar Joseph 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Romario Shepherd · b Shamar Joseph	28	24	2	1	116.67
Hassan Nawazcaught · Johnson Charles · Akeal Hosein 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Johnson Charles · b Akeal Hosein	24	18	1	2	133.33
Mohammad Nawazcaught · Gudakesh Motie · Romario Shepherd 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Gudakesh Motie

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Jediah Blades0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	24	0	12.00	3
Jason Holder0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	1	8.75	4
Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	1	7.75	0
Shamar Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	3	7.50	0
Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	0	7.67	0
Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	29	1	9.67	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	10	16/0
3	10	26/0
4	1	27/1
5	8	35/1
6	11	46/1
7	7	53/1
8	9	62/1
9	8	70/1
10	13	83/1
11	20	103/1
12	5	108/2
13	2	110/2
14	6	116/3
15	10	126/3
16	10	136/3
17	9	145/4
18	9	154/5
19	12	166/5
20	12	178/6

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