KuwaitversusMyanmar

28 Oct 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Kuwait won by 20 runs

Kuwait20.0 overs130/9 Myanmar20.0 overs110/7 Singapore National Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Kuwait more likely to win

57%Kuwait43%Myanmar

Why

In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Kuwait won 3 and Myanmar won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Myanmar rate stronger than Kuwait (1,406 vs 1,406 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Kuwait started on 55%; Kuwait batted first.

Kuwait’s chance of winning (%) · Myanmar is the rest

Kuwait's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (Myanmar: 0% to 59%).

Biggest swings

5.1: ZL Win to Amna Tariq, Amna Tariq out. Myanmar up from 48% to 59%.
19.6: MPP San to Khadija Khalil, four by Khadija Khalil. Kuwait up from 68% to 78%.
2nd inns 12.3: Amna Tariq to KM Myat, Zon Lin out. Kuwait up from 74% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Kuwait130/9 Myanmar110/7

Innings 1

Kuwait

130/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Kuwait batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Priyada Muralirun out · MPP San, TT Soe · MPP San 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · MPP San, TT Soe	4	4	1	0	100.00
Zeefa Jilanicaught · Thae Thae Po · ZL Win 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Thae Thae Po · b ZL Win	21	14	3	1	150.00
Amna Tariqbowled · ZL Win 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b ZL Win	6	11	1	0	54.55
B Shantirun out · MPP San, KM Myat · MPP San 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · MPP San, KM Myat	0	0	0	0	—
S Lita D'Sabowled · TT Soe 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b TT Soe	34	31	5	0	109.68
Mariamma Hyderstumped · Thae Thae Po · TT Soe5 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
MPP San0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	2	5.75	6
ZL Win1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	24	2	6.00	0
Zon Lin0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	12	0	12.00	3
TT Soe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	2	5.00	1
SY Win0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	12	0	12.00	1
LL Htun0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	0	5.50	2
Pan Ei Phyu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	6	0	6.00	1
TT Aung0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	10	1	10.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	8	12/1
3	3	15/1
4	12	27/2
5	5	32/3
6	4	36/4
7	12	48/4
8	0	48/4
9	2	50/4
10	12	62/4
11	6	68/4
12	12	80/4
13	5	85/4
14	6	91/4
15	7	98/4
16	2	100/6
17	4	104/6
18	5	109/6
19	10	119/7
20	11	130/9

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