BotswanaversusNigeria

3 Jun 2024 · T20

Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Nigeria won by 9 wickets

Botswana20.0 overs56/10 Nigeria8.4 overs59/1 Gahanga International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nigeria more likely to win

30%Botswana70%Nigeria

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nigeria rate stronger than Botswana (1,425 vs 1,343 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Nigeria won 2 and Botswana won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Botswana started on 29%; Botswana batted first.

Botswana’s chance of winning (%) · Nigeria is the rest

Botswana's chances ranged from 0% to 30% during the match (Nigeria: 70% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: L Udeh to O Kgeresi, O Kgeresi out. Nigeria up from 71% to 77%.
0.5: L Udeh to S Mosweu, S Mosweu out. Nigeria up from 77% to 82%.
19.6: P Agboya to A Letuba, A Letuba out. Nigeria up from 93% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Botswana56/10 Nigeria59/1

Innings 1

Botswana

56/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Botswana batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
O Kgeresilbw · L Udeh 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b L Udeh	0	3	0	0	0.00
L Mophakedilbw · U Peace 5 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b U Peace	34	47	5	0	72.34
S Mosweulbw · L Udeh 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b L Udeh	0	2	0	0	0.00
T Shadrackrun out · S Etim, A Igbobie · L Piety 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · S Etim, A Igbobie	3	22	0	0	13.64
Pako Mapotsanelbw · L Piety 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b L Piety	8	22	0	0	36.36
G Matomenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes	not out

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
L Udeh2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	2	3	0.50	1
P Agboya1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	4	2	1.00	0
A Akhigbe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	16	0	5.33	1
L Piety1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	14	3	3.50	0
U Peace0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	9	1	2.25	1
C Chukwuonye0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	9	0	9.00	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/2
2	0	1/2
3	0	1/2
4	2	3/2
5	3	6/2
6	1	7/2
7	7	14/2
8	6	20/2
9	3	23/2
10	7	30/3
11	2	32/3
12	6	38/3
13	1	39/3
14	9	48/3
15	3	51/3
16	0	51/4
17	2	53/5
18	1	54/7
19	1	55/8
20	1	56/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.