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Photo: Benchill
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Pakistan tour of New Zealand · 2023/24 · Men
17 Jan 2024 · T20
University Oval, Dunedin · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 70%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 67% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 33%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Allenbowled · Zaman Khan 5 fours · 16 sixes | bowled · b Zaman Khan | 137 | 62 | 5 | 16 | 220.97 |
| Devon Conwaycaught · Mohammad Nawaz · Haris Rauf 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Nawaz · b Haris Rauf | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
| Tim Seifertcaught · Saim Ayub · Mohammad Wasim 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Saim Ayub · b Mohammad Wasim | 31 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 134.78 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Zaman Khan · Mohammad Nawaz 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zaman Khan · b Mohammad Nawaz | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 160.00 |
| Glenn Phillipscaught · Saim Ayub · Shaheen Afridi 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Saim Ayub · b Shaheen Afridi | 19 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 126.67 |
| caught · Mohammad Wasim · b Haris Rauf |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Mitchell Santnerrun out · Shaheen Afridi, Mohammad Wasim · Shaheen Afridi 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Shaheen Afridi, Mohammad Wasim | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Matt Henrynot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Ish Sodhinot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 10.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaman Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 9.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 60 | 2 | 15.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Mohammad Wasim0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 8.75 | 2 | 0 |
1-28 (Devon Conway, 3.2) · 2-153 (Tim Seifert, 13.3) · 3-174 (Daryl Mitchell, 14.5) · 4-203 (Finn Allen, 17.2) · 5-214 (Mark Chapman, 18.4) · 6-219 (Mitchell Santner, 19.1) · 7-221 (Glenn Phillips, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 14 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 29/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 39/1 |
| 6 | 28 | 67/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 71/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 75/1 |
| 9 | 17 | 92/1 |
| 10 | 11 | 103/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 109/1 |
| 12 | 23 | 132/1 |
| 13 | 18 | 150/1 |
| 14 | 10 | 160/2 |
| 15 | 14 | 174/3 |
| 16 | 14 | 188/3 |
| 17 | 9 | 197/3 |
| 18 | 14 | 211/4 |
| 19 | 7 | 218/5 |
| 20 | 6 | 224/7 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lockie Ferguson: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Ish Sodhi: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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