IndiaversusEngland

31 Jan 2025 · T20

Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 15 runs

India20.0 overs181/9 England19.4 overs166/10 Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

79%India21%England

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than England (1,813 vs 1,682 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and England won 3
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 77%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

India's chances ranged from 39% to 99% during the match (England: 1% to 61%).

Biggest swings

1.6: S Mahmood to SA Yadav, SA Yadav out. England up from 37% to 61%.
2nd inns 14.3: CV Varun to HC Brook, HC Brook out. India up from 44% to 63%.
2nd inns 14.5: CV Varun to BA Carse, BA Carse out. India up from 55% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India181/9 England166/10

Innings 1

India

181/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sanju Samsoncaught · Brydon Carse · Saqib Mahmood 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Brydon Carse · b Saqib Mahmood	1	3	0	0	33.33
Abhishek Sharmacaught · Jacob Bethell · Adil Rashid 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Jacob Bethell · b Adil Rashid	29	19	4	1	152.63
Tilak Varmacaught · Jofra Archer · Saqib Mahmood 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jofra Archer · b Saqib Mahmood	0	1	0	0	0.00
Suryakumar Yadavcaught · Brydon Carse · Saqib Mahmood 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Brydon Carse · b Saqib Mahmood

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Jofra Archer0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	37	0	9.25	1	1
Saqib Mahmood1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	35	3	8.75	1	0
Brydon Carse0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	39	1	9.75	1	0
Jamie Overton0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	32	2	8.00	2	1
Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	35	1	8.75	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	12	12/0
2	0	12/3
3	7	19/3
4	9	28/3
5	9	37/3
6	10	47/3
7	6	53/3
8	12	65/4
9	4	69/4
10	3	72/4
11	7	79/5
12	8	87/5
13	11	98/5
14	12	110/5
15	3	113/5
16	16	129/5
17	17	146/5
18	20	166/6
19	12	178/6
20	3	181/9

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