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Photo: Aravind Sivaraj
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UAE ODI Tri-Series · 2026/27 · Men
17 Oct 2026 · ODI
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photographRecorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 29%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettlbw · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Taskin Ahmed | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ben Curranlbw · Taskin Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Taskin Ahmed | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 54.55 |
| Tafadzwa Tsigacaught · Nurul Hasan · Taskin Ahmed 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nurul Hasan · b Taskin Ahmed | 16 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 106.67 |
 Brendan Taylorcaught · Mosaddek Hossain Saikat · Saif Hassan10 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mosaddek Hossain Saikat · b Saif Hassan | 81 | 101 | 10 | 0 | 80.20 |
 Craig Ervine |
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 9% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 91%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Nurul Hasan · b Shariful Islam |
| 93 |
| 106 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 87.74 |
 Sikandar Razacaught · Nurul Hasan · Saif Hassan0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nurul Hasan · b Saif Hassan | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Wesley Madheverecaught · Soumya Sarkar · Rishad Hossain 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Soumya Sarkar · b Rishad Hossain | 17 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 113.33 |
|---|
| Brad Evanscaught · Nurul Hasan · Shariful Islam 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nurul Hasan · b Shariful Islam | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
| Newman Nyamhurinot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 21* | 17 | 1 | 1 | 123.53 |
|---|
| Wellington Masakadzanot out 0 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 21* | 15 | 0 | 2 | 140.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Taskin Ahmed2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 44 | 3 | 4.40 | 0 | 0 |
 Shariful Islam1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 47 | 2 | 4.70 | 1 | 0 |
 Mustafizur Rahman2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 4.40 | 2 | 0 |
 Mosaddek Hossain Saikat0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 66 | 1 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Soumya Sarkar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Saif Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Brian Bennett, 1.0) · 2-17 (Ben Curran, 4.1) · 3-24 (Tafadzwa Tsiga, 7.0) · 4-174 (Brendan Taylor, 36.2) · 5-182 (Sikandar Raza, 38.1) · 6-220 (Wesley Madhevere, 42.4) · 7-224 (Craig Ervine, 43.4) · 8-234 (Brad Evans, 45.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 7/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 22/2 |
| 6 | 0 | 22/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 24/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 28/3 |
| 9 | 0 | 28/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 30/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 35/3 |
| 12 | 10 | 45/3 |
| 13 | 12 | 57/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 60/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 61/3 |
| 16 | 11 | 72/3 |
| 17 | 0 | 72/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 74/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 80/3 |
| 20 | 6 | 86/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 89/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 93/3 |
| 23 | 9 | 102/3 |
| 24 | 7 | 109/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 114/3 |
| 26 | 11 | 125/3 |
| 27 | 10 | 135/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 139/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 143/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 149/3 |
| 31 | 4 | 153/3 |
| 32 | 0 | 153/3 |
| 33 | 7 | 160/3 |
| 34 | 1 | 161/3 |
| 35 | 8 | 169/3 |
| 36 | 4 | 173/3 |
| 37 | 5 | 178/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 182/4 |
| 39 | 6 | 188/5 |
| 40 | 13 | 201/5 |
| 41 | 6 | 207/5 |
| 42 | 7 | 214/5 |
| 43 | 8 | 222/6 |
| 44 | 3 | 225/7 |
| 45 | 8 | 233/7 |
| 46 | 2 | 235/8 |
| 47 | 10 | 245/8 |
| 48 | 6 | 251/8 |
| 49 | 9 | 260/8 |
| 50 | 11 | 271/8 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Brendan Taylor: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mosaddek Hossain Saikat: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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