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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Sri Lanka Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2025 · Women
4 May 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 71%; India batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pratika Rawallbw · Inoka Ranaweera 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Inoka Ranaweera | 35 | 39 | 3 | 1 | 89.74 |
 Smriti Mandhanarun out · Kavisha Dilhari, Anushka Sanjeewani · Chamari Atapattu3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kavisha Dilhari, Anushka Sanjeewani | 18 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 64.29 |
| Harleen Deolcaught · Inoka Ranaweera · Dewmi Vihanga 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Inoka Ranaweera · b Dewmi Vihanga | 29 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 82.86 |
 Harmanpreet Kaurcaught · Anushka Sanjeewani · Sugandika Kumari3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Sugandika Kumari | 30 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 66.67 |
India's chances ranged from 11% to 88% during the match (Sri Lanka: 12% to 89%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Chamari Atapattu |
| 37 |
| 46 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 80.43 |
 Richa Ghoshcaught · Malki Madara · Sugandika Kumari5 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Malki Madara · b Sugandika Kumari | 58 | 48 | 5 | 3 | 120.83 |
|---|
 Deepti Sharmalbw · Chamari Atapattu1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chamari Atapattu | 24 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Kashvee Gautamcaught · Vishmi Gunaratne · Chamari Atapattu 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vishmi Gunaratne · b Chamari Atapattu | 17 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 154.55 |
|---|
| Arundhati Reddynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 11 | 0 | 0 | 81.82 |
|---|
| Sneh Ranastumped · Anushka Sanjeewani · Sugandika Kumari 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Sugandika Kumari | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 111.11 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 4 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malki Madara0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 7.17 | 0 | 1 |
 Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 3 | 4.40 | 1 | 0 |
| Dewmi Vihanga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 5.40 | 0 | 0 |
 Chamari Atapattu1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 43 | 3 | 4.30 | 2 | 0 |
| Inoka Ranaweera0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 5.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 7.83 | 0 | 1 |
1-51 (Smriti Mandhana, 9.1) · 2-59 (Pratika Rawal, 12.5) · 3-101 (Harleen Deol, 21.0) · 4-145 (Harmanpreet Kaur, 29.2) · 5-181 (Jemimah Rodrigues, 35.2) · 6-233 (Richa Ghosh, 43.2) · 7-255 (Deepti Sharma, 46.2) · 8-258 (Kashvee Gautam, 47.0) · 9-275 (Sneh Rana, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 27/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 28/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 31/0 |
| 8 | 8 | 39/0 |
| 9 | 12 | 51/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 54/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 55/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 58/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 60/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 65/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 69/2 |
| 16 | 0 | 69/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 74/2 |
| 18 | 7 | 81/2 |
| 19 | 10 | 91/2 |
| 20 | 8 | 99/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 101/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 106/3 |
| 23 | 6 | 112/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 115/3 |
| 25 | 7 | 122/3 |
| 26 | 6 | 128/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 130/3 |
| 28 | 11 | 141/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 144/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 150/4 |
| 31 | 8 | 158/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 163/4 |
| 33 | 4 | 167/4 |
| 34 | 3 | 170/4 |
| 35 | 10 | 180/4 |
| 36 | 1 | 181/5 |
| 37 | 11 | 192/5 |
| 38 | 1 | 193/5 |
| 39 | 6 | 199/5 |
| 40 | 6 | 205/5 |
| 41 | 4 | 209/5 |
| 42 | 14 | 223/5 |
| 43 | 9 | 232/5 |
| 44 | 3 | 235/6 |
| 45 | 11 | 246/6 |
| 46 | 9 | 255/6 |
| 47 | 3 | 258/8 |
| 48 | 4 | 262/8 |
| 49 | 9 | 271/8 |
| 50 | 4 | 275/9 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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